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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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After saying farewell to Arafat, all of us ask the same question, will his death make a difference in the Middle East peace process? Answers vary from firm to moderate optimism to prophecies of anarchy and bloodshed. Continuing stalemate with no clear results is also a likely outcome. If found the solid solution will require much more political and symbolic sacrifices from the Palestinian side of the conflict. Without such sacrifices they will have to wait until radical change in American public opinion that traditionally supports Israel. Another possible source of miracles for them may come from the Iranian nuclear program.

Arafat is gone and many Israelis feel relieved at this news. For them he was a symbol of terrorism, although his more recent political life, especially between 1993 and 2000 showed his different face as peacemaker. Indeed during this period he looked like a moderate leader compared to Hamas and other groups. Was this staged only to present him as a peacemaker, a person Israel can make a deal with? Whatever the truth is, Washington and Tel Aviv decided not to keep the talks going until Arafat rules over the Palestinians. They waited until he passed away.

Now the salient question is was this death necessary to start again the peace process? America and Europe show signs of moderate optimism. Other fear threat of anarchy and bloodshed as the power vacuum within the Palestinian authority is filled with conflicting interests and personalities. Possible stalemate is also an option given the opposing interests of mainstream Palestinians and Israelis (just think about the Palestinian refugees). The good news is that the United States has started new presidential period, so there is plenty of time to put in motion mid-term strategy for peace in the Middle East.

I heard these days from some Palestinian sources, some of them high and middle-ranking officials, that they won't ever accept the Israel's conditions for peace and that they are ready to wait for 200 more years to have their ancestral rights restored. Arafat was champion of these rights, especially of the right to return of the Palestinian refugees. Because of the deadlock over these rights the Camp David talks of 2000 failed. When I realized how close the two sides were to the final peace agreement I was stunned by the lack of political wisdom that was shown by Arafat at these talks. He could have gotten many things, Gaza, up to 97% of West Bank, parts of East Jerusalem and even free access to the Al-Aqsa mosque. He thought he could get even more by pushing to the corner the Israeli premier Ehud Baraq, which parliament coalition of peace was gradually disintegrating after 4-month terror campaign of the Palestinian suicide bombers.

Arafat wanted more and what he got was Ariel Sharon as Israeli prime minister, a personality that in the eyes of the Palestinians looks much like Arafat in the eyes of the Israelis. More than blowing apart the peace coalition in Israel, Arafat created new large political consensus in this country, offering much less than Barak and ready to impose this offer either by talks or by building unilaterally a wall dividing Israel from its neighbors.

Now the Palestinians are in much worse bargaining position than 2000 and the only person they can blame for this fact is the late Arafat. Sharon is gradually building his wall and if nothing is done, he will separate the two nations and very soon, (what irony!), proclaim the independent but truncated Palestinian state in Gaza and parts of West bank. The Palestinian will have to accept this shortened version of independence, which is very unlikely, or wait until America and Israel become more generous, which may take long, or hope for some regional balance of power shift that will make Israel concede more territories. Given that 9/11 didn't change the United State resolve to protect Israel, the only tangible thing the Palestinians can hope on is the eventual nuclear capacity of Iran, the regional nemesis of Israel. Their hopes will be based on the assumption that Israel will wait and see until Tehran produces its first nuclear weapon, assumption that looks very unlikely given the Israeli's obsession with its security and history of preventive strikes.

What seems to me as the best solution, although I understand how utopian it might seem for many, is for the Palestinians to accept what Sharon can give them with some minor symbolic improvements. Given the mutual mistrust between the two nations, there could be no immediate solution that could satisfy both sides. The top priority should be given to the peace at unfavorable conditions for the Palestinian. The second priority should be given to the regional economic development and democratic building and consolidation in the Arab countries situated closer to Israel. After 1-2 generations of peace and economic prosperity Israel perhaps will be willing without major security concerns to allow the Palestinian refugees, more precisely their great-grand children, to get back. This scenario will take many decades to produce desirable results, but if we think on again, it will be much less than 200 years or so waiting in refugee camps, and it will be much better than living under constant bomb threats.