|
Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
|
 |
Argentina: Economic miracle?Since the end of last economic and financial crisis in Argentina the country has made several big steps forward. Many international companies have landed with investment projects of hundreds of millions dollars expecting easy profits in a market that officially moves up at par with countries like China. Looking closely however we see that this economic 'miracle' is far from certain and sustainable. Taking additional factors like preceding recession and population growth, the current boom is much less than spectacular. Taking some more factors like extremely favorable international economic environment we'll see that this economic growth isn't even sustainable in long term.
Is there any miracle at all?Let's face raw numbers without any prejudice. Since 1998 Argentina went through two very different economic periods, recession in 1999-2002 and boom in the years afterward. The recession was deep, approximately 20% of the GDP; the boom afterward seems so far very spectacular, approximately 35% until the end of this year. The situation now compared to the situation when the crisis started is however less spectacular. In the last 8 years the economy has grown by less than 15% and the population has grown by more than 8%. Thus the GDP per capita has grown by no more than 6-7% in 8 years, or less than 1% a year, a situation very far from any definition of miracle having in mind that some countries make similar cumulative progress in less than a year. The same 'miracle' we see on the real estate market. After the prices fell by half in 2001-2002 they bounced back to their pre-crisis levels. Outside the context of previous crisis this progress seems spectacular; within broader historic perspective this development is nothing more than post-crisis readjustment.
International factorWhat made Argentina bounce back so quickly was the rising international demand for its key export commodities, agricultural and mining, as well as the excellent financial shape of its main foreign markets, China and Russia. Some experts say the economic growth in Argentina would have been even higher if the government has followed more liberal economic policy, e.g. lifting all restrictions on internal consumer prices. This would have freed additional amounts of food for export, giving additional financial incentives to domestic producers. On a positive side, this government has made a good deal on restructuring the huge foreign debt with big discount in 2005, giving the country some extra time for unbounded economic development.A close look at the Argentina's export profile will suffice to conclude that the county's prosperity is in fact based on the assumption that some newly industrializing countries like China and India will keep on pushing up demand indefinitely, and that countries like Russia will always be in demand of importing food in large quantities. This will be a very risky prediction. As an early comer on the world markets Argentina will have some advantages over its competitors that come later. Even without a major global economic crisis however, with agricultural markets becoming more opened, e.g. Europe, and natural resources more available from alternative sources, e.g. Africa, the share of Argentina in global markets will inevitably shrink. Unless it succeeds in restructuring its economy and in eliminating its export dependency on a limited number of commodities, Argentina's future doesn't look bright.
Argentina country profile: --------------------
See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Argentina.
|
See also:
