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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Armenia is the only former Soviet nation in Southern Caucasus maintaining high intensity relations with its former federal center in Moscow. This is a choice done in the name of regional balance of power, economic dependence, cultural links, and, let's face it, lack of better international alternatives. All Armenians experience consequences of this choice in their daily lives. From arguably one of most advanced Soviet republics only 15 years after the breakdown of USSR this tiny nation depends on foreign aid and remittances more than ever.

When Soviet Union went down, nations from Central Europe to Central Asia had their moment of truth. They had to choose between moving away from former imperial center and sticking to what remained of its former economic power. With hindsight it may seem an easy choice. Countries that moved away from Moscow are now doing much better than those remaining too close to it. Look at countries as close and at the same time as different as Poland and Belarus and you don't need looking for more examples. One of them is stable democracy, EU and NATO member, its economy is in much better shape than 20 years ago, foreign investors are lining up, its future looks bright; another is personal tyranny, rejected by almost all civilized nations as a partner, its economy looks no better than 20 years ago, its future looks even grimmer. Comparison between Poland and Belarus is instructive because neither Poland is the best performing nation in Central Europe, not Belarus is worst case for a country opting to stay with Russia.

Armenia is an even better case of what happens in long term to those who cannot detach themselves from former economic center; an economic center that cannot make them prosperous due to several factors, which aren't part of this article. Whether Armenia was naturally or unnaturally elevated among best performing Soviet republics is also a story not to be analyzed here. Some consequences are however interesting enough to be presented. Armenians in Soviet Armenia as far as polls and interviews witness, believed they represented far superior society than all their neighbors, especially those affiliated with Islam. They looked at themselves as natural allies of Moscow against 'infidels'; for them Soviet Union was not a history break but a natural continuation of Russian Orthodox Empire under another form. Add to this sense of superiority and orthodox solidarity a great dose of fear provoked by past ethnic and religious massacres and Armenian foreign choice of early 1990s even in hindsight doesn't seem so difficult to understand.

When Soviet Union broke up, and ever since that time, major players in Southern Caucasus are Russia, U.S.A., Turkey, Iran, and European Union (EU) to a degree, just because Europeans are supposed playing actively in just any part of the world. Turkey put its stakes on Azerbaijan; EU was more concerned with energy supplies, thus preferring Azerbaijan and Georgia to Armenia; U.S.A. up until 9/11 was preoccupied protecting its regional proxies; thus leaving Russia and Iran with no choice than balancing by establishing close relations with Armenia. These close relations however aren't equally beneficial. Iran gets additional security from north and Russia gets more security from south plus control over vital Armenian energy infrastructures. In exchange they provide bare minimum of security for internationally recognized Armenia, i.e. to Armenia without occupied territories in Azerbaijan. With such 'generous' support Armenia can't succeed enlarging itself against Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, which is part of its irredentist national projects. On top of this Armenia doesn't receive enough foreign investments for economic development. Foreign investments mainly buy existing facilities; they don't create new economy.

As a result poor economic performance is evident. Stuck between unfriendly neighbors, internal market in Armenia cannot surpass some bare minimum needed for making it interesting for foreign private investors outside some wealthy members of Diaspora. Population is shrinking due to natural causes and emigration. Officially declared population of almost 3 million is in fact no more than 2 million. Remaining people are seasonal or permanent workers in foreign countries and members of their families, mainly in Russia. It's hard finding an extended family in Armenia without close relatives living or working abroad.

Country profile:

• Area: 29,800 sq. km
• Population: 3.0 million (July 2006 est.)
• Net migration rate: -5.72 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2006 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 71.84 years
• Ethnic groups: Armenian 98%, Russian 0.5%, (2001)
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $4,800 (2005 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 43% (2003 est.)
• Main trade partners: EU states, Russia, and the U.S.A.
• Internet users: 150,000 (2005)

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2006, Reuters)

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