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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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A new bill in Armenia allows (at last) the citizens to hold dual citizenship. In fact, it allows all ethnic Armenians living abroad to get Armenian citizenship. The calculation seems very simple. The official population of the country now is 3 million. Up to 8-9 million ethnic Armenians live in other countries. They all will be eligible for Armenian citizenship without renouncing other citizenships. Thus, the Armenian citizens may become easily 11-12 million. The largest Armenian diasporas live in Russia, France, and in the United States. For many reasons, the group in Russia is politically the most important. It's this group that will benefit the most following the new legislation. Consequently, the leverage of Moscow over the political life in Armenia, just months before parliamentary and presidential elections, will grow significantly.

It seemed like a natural decision, but it took almost two decades before Armenia finally allowed dual citizenship. It seemed very natural, because Armenian state has always proclaimed its close connection with millions of Armenians living in other countries. When it came to give these people a real say in political life in Yerevan, however, the government's survival instincts came first thus far. How a regime with dubious democratic records will allow so many people living abroad and not under its direct control to determine who should rule the country? On the other hand, it wasn't easy to cut altogether the links with the diaspora. Against every dollar that the government could get in taxes and in aid there were two dollars sent from abroad under the form of remittances and private donations.

The current bill, in this sense, means that the government has made a calculation that expanding radically the base for citizenship won't endanger its political survival. More than that, it may be that the government has made a calculation, that expanding citizenship may be a new tool that will finally eliminate any attempt by the opposition to reach power using electoral procedures only. The current Armenian government acts in close cooperation with Moscow, which means that this calculation may, in fact, been suggested from Kremlin. For people living outside the ex-USSR this speculation may look as an idea taken from bad conspiracy novels. In fact, however, Kremlin's attempts to see loyal, i.e. subservient, partners in many ex-Soviet republics are part of the Russian understanding of how its zone of influence should look like. A close look at recent political developments in most post-Soviet republics will show us that, as a matter of rule, Russia tries to influence electoral outcomes by mobilizing different ethnic groups within Russia that may vote one way or another.

If this is true, then we may expect that the new bill granting dual citizenship will most likely benefit politically only the Armenian diaspora in Russia. We may expect that this group, at least 1 million, maybe even 2 million, will be mobilized to vote for the current regime's representatives as far as they keep good relations with Moscow. Unlike the diasporas in the West, the Armenians in Russia live under much worse political conditions, so they are much easier to be manipulated by the local Russian authorities. On the other hand, the poll stations in the West may be largely limited to diplomatic missions, meaning that large number of new Armenian citizens will in fact have no effective way of influencing election outcomes.

At the end, however, everybody will get something. Armenian government will stay in power; the Armenians living around the world will get dual citizenship; and Moscow will keep and increase its political control over Armenia. Maybe the last one will be the new bills' most significant legacy.

Country profile:

• Area: 29,800 sq. km
• Population: 3.0 million (July 2006 est.)
• Population growth rate: -0.19% (2006 est.)
• Net migration rate: -5.72 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2006 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 71.84 years
• Ethnic groups: Armenian 98%, Russian 0.5%, (2001)
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $5,400 (2006 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 43% (2003 est.)
• Main trade partners: Russia, Germany, Belgium, and the U.S.A.
• Internet users: 150,000 (2005)

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2006, Reuters)

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