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Archived Articles  Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian descent, and former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with the hot political and economic topics, both Bulgarian and international. ("A Royal Solution." World Press Review. June 1997, provides English versions). He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1996-1997 participated in the international monitors' teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria. In 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. In 2002 Simeon and his family emigrated from Bulgaria to Canada where they now live in Montreal, Quebec.
Global Real Estate Project
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Will India or China be the Next Economic Powerhouse?Some 250 ago China and India were the industrial powerhouses of the world, by far exceeding their European competitors. In fact Europe was for centuries nothing more than economic appendix to these two civilizations of artisans. The event that changed their supremacy was the industrial revolution in England. From their top economic positions China and India went to the bottom where they remained between 1850s and 1950s. Different techniques have been used since in order to fix the problem in both countries. It seems that after so many fail starts the globalization and specialization will bounce back these two economies to their rightful positions as industrial powerhouses. More economic forecasts predict that 20-30 years from now there will be only 4 powerful economic centers in the world - United States, United Europe, China and India, each commanding between 15% and 20% of the world economy. Closer analysis shows that India and China have different strong cards to play. Their chances of success aren't identical. At least one of them may never reach this economic G4.
Chinese advantagesThe first advantage of China was that it embraced the economic openness a decade before India. It's always easier to take new markets than trying to retake them. Given that China and India partly compete for similar markets, e.g. textile, and dollar-shops plastics, these 10 years of advantage represent billions of dollars more investments for China. Another advantage is the literacy rate of more than 90% compared to less than 60% in India. India can solve this problem but it will need one more generation to cope with it. China has considerably better infrastructures according to almost all foreign investors. This saves them money and makes their investment more lucrative all the rest being equal. Chinese population has higher GDP per capita which means that more products can be diverted to local markets in case of international economic crisis. Last but not least, in short term China offers better political environment with seemingly strong authoritarian government suppressing any dissent against economic openness. Investors shouldn't fear, at least theoretically, trade unions or independent environmentalist organizations. Strong connections with local party leaders are all they need in order to make money.
Indian advantagesLooking at the above-mentioned Chinese advantages it may seem that for India it wouldn't be easy to catch up, even in 20 years. In fact this country has at least 2-3 particular comparative advantages over its main Asian competitor. If it can play them well, at the end it could perform much better and shift to itself the international attention that China enjoys today. The first is predominant fluency with the English language. With so many official and local languages the English is considered as ethnically neutral. By coincidence at the same time it's language of the international business community. This time it would take China at least a generation to catch up with India. By that time India will have commanding lead in areas like calling centers and customer services. Another peculiarity in India is the semi-traditional ruling elite. It doesn't depend on the state for economic survival; it doesn't need to sell its services to the government in order to occupy decision-making positions. It looks more like the English aristocracy of early 19th century, people that kept control on the land and at the same time made money in the cities.The importance of such ruling class shouldn't be overestimated. With millions of peasants going to cities this elite could play stabilizing political role. In the next 20-30 years we'll see unprecedented migration in the human history. Hundreds of millions of peasants will flee their villages in both Indian and China in search for better life. The business-oriented elite in India can cope with this situation better then the party officials in China. Democratic institutions in India will serve better as buffer for social discontent than naked police reaction in China. India can avoid political earthquakes, although it isn't guaranteed; in China such quakes are almost unavoidable in the next 15-20 years. Last but not least, India is closer to the West in terms of private property protection. This protection is a matter of law, not of political whim. This law protection seems the most difficult part of the Western way of life to learn. To obey laws and not persons is something much more difficult to get than learning the English or how to make calculations. It will take more than a generation in China to apply it even after the communist regime is gone. And it's still there and well alive.
India & China comparative profiles: --------------------
See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of India and China.
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