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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Azerbaijan: Painful independence 15 years laterAzerbaijan is a former Soviet republic, located in the Caucasus region. If we divide post-Soviet republics into two groups, those that asked for independence and those who didn't before 1991, Azerbaijan would clearly fall into the second group. This state of unpreparedness to cope alone with problems that independent statehood implies put a heavy burden on this country's most recent political development. Civil society is too weak, state bureaucracy is too strong vis-à-vis society; political regime can be mildly described as 'undemocratic' and less mildly as 'sultanistic'. There are so many such countries in the world, so we may ask ourselves what makes Azerbaijan so special? It's the location. Economic location played certain role thus far. Strategic location may play a role from now on. Can you see on the map the border between Azerbaijan and Iran?
Legacies as burdenAzerbaijan is among those post-communist countries for which we can say for sure that legacies act as a burden for development, economic and political. Let's look at the facts. In the years before its independence this country had little political autonomy vis-à-vis Moscow, much less than many other former Soviet republics, think Lithuania or the neighboring Armenia. Economically Baku was linked with Russia by oil and gas pipelines. There were no alternative infrastructures to export the only thing that Azerbaijan had in abundance, the oil. Worse, one sixth of the territory was occupied by Armenia, and the only way to get independently to the world markets was through Georgia, a small and a weak country, itself threatened by ethnic separatism and new Russian expansionism. Relations with Iran are traditionally bad; Tehran fears that Azerbaijan can call for separation from Iran of mainly Azeri-populated northern regions. To make the picture even worse, let's add corruption and nepotism as a way of life; geographic isolation from any major world center of political decision-making; and low priority for most western great powers. It's of no surprise that many Azeris still leave the country looking for better life elsewhere.
Legacies as opportunityLegacies can, however, be seen not only as a burden but also as a great opportunity. A country cannot 'move' anywhere without war; what it can do peacefully, however, is to use its location or to wait until it becomes useful for the great powers. In a similar way Bulgaria and Romania used their location in 1999 to ask for NATO and EU membership in exchange for giving air space for NATO bombardment against Yugoslavia. Without such a bargain, Sofia and Bucharest, arguably, would have still been outside both organizations. Regarding oil and other infrastructures, Azerbaijan is using the sole available corridor toward western markets through Georgia and Turkey, trying to bypass as much as possible both Russia and Iran. This makes a very good impression in the West. America and Europe seem ready to forget for a moment even the undemocratic nature of the political regime in Baku. Azerbaijan seems not ready or not willing to take back its lost territories by force; this moderation is also a sign that asks for acclamation. What can really make Azerbaijan a key state for the West may come if the relations between Washington and Tehran worsen beyond the point of repair. Baku should be prepared for such an eventuality. It's hard to embrace the cause of a far-away great power against your immediate neighbor. Far-away powers come and go, but the neighbors rest. This, however, may be the golden moment for Azerbaijan to trade its location against a better standing.
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