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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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8 October 2007

Belarus: Isolated and under pressure

© 2007, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Belarus is as isolated from the West as it's been since the late 1990s. The relatively newer development is that the country is increasingly growing isolated even from Moscow; the reason why the Kremlin doesn't force the president Alexander Lukashenko out of office is the uncertainty surrounding his eventual successor and especially his foreign political orientation. But the pressure on Lukashenko to protect better the Russian economic interests is growing. The Russian gas giant Gazprom and other semi-public-semi-private corporations are unhappy with the dictatorial rule that denies them parts of the national infrastructure, infrastructure that once was part of the former Soviet energy corridors east-west. With the political game in Moscow already done without consultations with Belarus and the other ex-Soviet republics, Belarus is in no position to ask for more attention from its 'bigger' brother. The only option left is to hold and to ease gradually positions in key areas, in expectations that this pressure will end some day.

The ex-Soviet states are growing increasingly unsatisfied with Moscow and its new imperialist policy; the recent summit of some heads of ex-Soviet republics demonstrated this non-satisfaction. Within this context, Belarus is just one among many countries that has enough with Russia. Unlike some Central Asian nations, however, Belarus can hardly find alternative external protector. In the region of Eastern Europe, Belarus must either go with Russia, or with the West. Regarding the West, Belarus is in international isolation. Lukashenko can't make such foreign policy U-turn without risking his personal power. Unlike the Central Asian despots that can flirt with the West and at the same time still remain comfortably in power. Belarus has therefore only one country to rely on, and Moscow is keen to capitalize on this monopoly.

How Moscow looks for returns on its monopolistic position vis-à-vis Belarus? The Russian energy giants, using their positions within the Russian leadership, are pressing over Minsk in order to get lucrative chunks from the national energy and other infrastructures. The fact is that most Russian corporations are indeed new names behind which we can find the Soviet economic ministries. Their staff is also partly hired under the communism; so it's of no surprise that they still look at the infrastructures built during the communism as their own. In light of this sense of private property, the current Belarusian state, as in fact any state surrounding Russia, is an obstacle for their projects. The only countertrend that still saves the power of Lukashenko is the Moscow's fear that his eventual successor may decide to change radically the foreign political orientation of the country.

Therefore Moscow can apply a regime of limited pressure on Belarus, denying it economic benefits and trading other benefits against even more benefits for Moscow. The relative economic isolation of Belarus vis-à-vis Russia is the reason why up to a half a million people has fled the country in the last couple of years, most of them ethnic Russians going east in search for a better life. In order to keep import energy supplies at levels allowing the economy to run, but not to prosper, Belarus has agreed to establish a custom union with Russia by 2011. Belarus is trading its sovereignty for extra time. At the end, it won't have anything to trade of for. And that will be the appropriate time for Moscow to find more convenient replacement for Lukashenko.

Belarus country profile:
  • Area: 207,600 sq km
  • Population: 9.7 million (July 2007 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 70.05 years
  • Ethnic groups: Belarusian 81.2%, Russian 11.4%, Polish, Ukrainian, and other 7.4%.
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $8,100 (2006 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 27% (2003 est.)
  • Unemployment rate: 2% officially registered unemployed (2005).
  • Main trading partners: Russia, some EU countries, and Ukraine.
  • Internet users: 3.3 million (2007)
(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2007, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Belarus.

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