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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Two years after the first Amerindian president of Bolivia Evo Morales came to power, the country is on the verge of political confrontation of unheard magnitude. It isn't an ordinary political struggle, one we have witnessed so many times in Latin America. At stake is the future of the country itself. Unless a working compromise is found that may separate the jurisdictions between the national and the provincial governments, a sort of turning Bolivia into a federation in everything but in the name, a more radical option might be envisaged: splitting the country into two unequal parts along ethnic lines.

Bolivia isn't an ordinary Latin American country. Unlike most of them, the local population is almost roughly split between endogenous people and mixed people of Indian and European origin, with slight domination of endogenous American Indian population. Also a fact that is relevant regarding the current political situation, these different ethnic groups are living rather separately. The Amerindian population is concentrated in the western mountainous regions; the white and mixed population is concentrated in the eastern lowlands. Another interesting point to be reckoning with is the fact that most Amerindians live traditional lives; most whites and mestizos live modern lives, although their standard of living isn't even close to that of the developed countries. Furthermore, the division between these groups isn't only ethnic, but also economic. Last but not least, the eastern lowland offers the only economic assets ready for export; the only one Bolivia may use to push ahead its economic growth, the natural gas.

Like many other Latin American countries with many ethnic groups, Bolivia was ruled in the past, which means up until 2005, by its white minority. The only way for the Amerindian population to experience social promotion was to assimilate to the dominant economic class, i.e. to abandon its traditional culture, way of life, and language. Some made it, but as the demographic statistics show, most remained deeply attached to their traditional way of life. This system of peaceful segregation in everything but the word was interrupted beginning in the 1980s, when more liberal economic policies made the traditional way of life unsustainable. The ethnic loyalty of the Amerindian population became a base for political identification and participation. At the end, following the democratic procedures, this once dominated ethnic majority took the power. The current president Evo Morales don't hide his plans to reform the country and to give the majority what it deserves, i.e. major stake in national economy, as well as in political and social life.

The problems for this plan to success are enormous. First, Bolivia is, in general, a very poor country, among the poorest on the continent. Even a perfect redistribution of the wealth won't change this situation; it will only generalize the poverty. Those who are on the bottom will become relatively richer but not by too much, and those on the top will become much poorer; but in general they will be all poor by any international standard. Which shifts the focus of any real economic policy from redistribution to production. Only significant and sustainable economic growth (e.g. China) can eliminate the basis of poverty and therefore make the redistribution worth trying. In this sense, Morales' policy comes too early to make any tangible impact on society.

Second, focusing public policy on production needs social peace as a precondition. No sustainable economic growth is possible without high rates of capital investments, and governments in very poor countries like Bolivia are constantly tempted to use this money for all sorts of social programs. The current government of Morales is therefore tempted to put additional tax burden on the shoulders of the 'rich' classes in order to save his face vis-à-vis his political followers. Putting too much pressure on the 'rich' classes creates social confrontation, which in fact destabilizes the social peace, which is a precondition for economic growth.

Third, most economic assets of Bolivia are located in the eastern regions, i.e. exactly where the political opponents of Morales have their strongholds. It will be quite surprising if they don't use their right to 'veto' any economic project that they will have to pay from their taxes, but all of the benefits of which will be redistributed among far-away living people of different ethnic groups. Preserving the social peace will need some sort of arrangement between Morales and his opponents. They all have at least one common interest: to promote economic growth. They however differ on how to do it, on who should pay for it, and on who should benefit from it in first place.

Thus far, Morales seems not understanding that he must make a compromise in order to achieve at least some of his goals. One way of doing this is by co-opting parts of the old political elite, which will guarantee that the economic policy will benefit all classes and ethnic groups. This will be a good and reassuring signal to the foreign investors who flee the country. Another way of reaching the same result will be to give more regional autonomy to resource-rich eastern regions. They will thus get a part of the export rent. A third way of seeing the future of Bolivia will be to split it along ethnic/economic/resource lines. This won't be the best option for the 'rich' white, and definitely will be the worst possible scenario for the Amerindian poor majority.

Country profile:

• Area: 1,098,580 sq.km
• Population: 9.1 million (July 2007 est.)
• Population growth rate: 1.42% (2007 est.)
• Net migration rate: -1.18 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2007 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 66.19 years
• Ethnic groups:
  • Quechua 30%
  • Mestizo (mixed white and Amerindian ancestry) 30%
  • Aymara 25%
  • White 15%.
• Official languages: Spanish, Quechua, and Aymara.
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $3,100 (2006 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 64% (2004 est.)
• Main trade partners: Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and Chile.

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2007; Reuters)

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