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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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For Canada 2007 will be a threshold year without any doubt, both in political and economic sense. Possible new federal and almost certain Quebec election may set in motion forces that will finally lead within years either to consolidation or to disintegration of Canada. Expensive oil and economic problems south of the border may make official the fact that national economic engine definitively moves from Ontario to western provinces Alberta and British Columbia. Major shifts in international migration will start affecting Canada as well.

Current conservative government seems on verge of collapsing. Different opposition strategies imply voting this cabinet out of office; some forecasts put new election as early as March. At the same time Quebec must also prepare for general election and conspiracy theorists of any political color link both events. According to them both incumbents will act in coordination in order to win elections, both playing on promises for new federal-provincial constitutional rearrangement of powers and on threats that main opposition parties represent for national unity and rights of provinces. One possible scenario gives power to both incumbents; another splits the votes on federal and provincial level; third one gives power to challengers.

If both incumbents win (conservatives in Ottawa and liberals in Quebec), and are able to form stable governments, they may in reality, helped by other provinces, make profound changes in constitutional arrangement. More power to provinces in specific areas may diminish thrust for independence in Quebec and therefore may lead to political consolidation of Canada. Electoral loss for both incumbents may unleash opposite forces. Strong federalist government in Ottawa and strong separatist government cabinet in Quebec may bring the province to a brink of tensions not seen since two previous referenda campaigns. Split vote may lead to different outcomes. Incumbent victory in Ottawa and loss in Quebec may lead to a new referendum with slightly less chances of success. Incumbent loss in Ottawa and victory in Quebec may lead to constitutional stalemate and therefore to a new referendum when Quebec nationalists take power one election cycle from now.

Another interesting development that will be accentuated during 2007 has economic dimensions. Even with oil slightly cheaper than its historic records economic engine of Canada seems moving inexorably to western provinces Alberta and British Columbia. New workers and real estate developers closely follow big money. If real estate market in east is more or less stagnant, in west it's still booming regardless of falling consumer demand south of the border. Something more than just temporary factors explains excellent economic performance of Canadian west. Sound fiscal policy and more liberal investment environment, plus lack of additional business costs, e.g. coming from special language laws, all this makes the West much more attractive place for investors even without counting expensive oil which now acts more as an additional favorable factor.

Canada is among economically most advanced countries that already feel problems coming from lack of sufficient population replacing older generations. Now 70-80% of whole population growth comes from immigration, and only 20-30% comes from births; among births at least 25% come from mothers born outside Canada, therefore in one way or another population growth depends almost entirely on immigration. It however is changing face quickly, people from particular regions of the world are less keen at migrating, including to Canada. Recent statistics show significant drop in the interest of people coming from China; the same process can be seen for people coming from Eastern Europe and former USSR; some countries of Latin America with good economic performance will also see their emigration cut. On the other hand, there is a sharp increase in number of people coming from Asian subcontinent and Africa. Different ethnic groups usually come to Canada with packages containing very different habits and traditions. Current shift in immigration sources is yet another way for Canada to prove its ability to integrate people without asking them to renounce their cultures.

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