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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The first ministers of all Canadian provinces have signed a document, establishing new body called Council of Federation. The place of the ceremony wasn't decided by coincidence. Charlottetown in Prince Edward Island was the city where Canadian federation was born in 1867. Striking fact was that the federal government wasn't even invited to participate in the ceremony. The moment when this new structure was created signals the changing relations between the federal center and the provinces. Some talk about the possibility of second federation, where the provinces won't be anymore "glorified municipalities" as was originally designed in 1867. The new prime minister in Ottawa Paul Martin will have to deal with unified front of provinces, keen to take as much new powers of taxation and redistribution as possible. In Canada who says power means money, so the investors, so far populating in large numbers Ottawa lobbying bodies, would have to shift their attention and pay more care to the provincial executives.

There is a popular anecdote in Canada, that the constitution isn't intended to solve the problems between the government and the people, but between the different levels of government, namely the federal and provincial. Where is the right equilibrium between the powers of Ottawa and any of the 10 provinces? This is the main question of Canadian constitutionalism*, which hunts the country since its creation 136 years ago. Being originally designed as highly centralized federation, Canada today is perhaps the most decentralized democratic country in the world. The problem with this system is that the main finance resources are still in the hands of the federal government, but the main social and economic responsibilities have gradually shifted toward provincial authorities. Medical care, education, social welfare; these three pillars of modern society are within the provincial jurisdiction.

United force of all provinces can make a big difference in the power equilibrium with Ottawa. The unanimous provincial vote is required to amend the constitutional order in its most sensitive areas - the form of government, the scope of power of the federal institutions, the future of the monarchy and the appointment of the Supreme Court judges, to mention just a few. These powers of unified provinces can't be exercised without federal accent, but so far Ottawa was reluctant to give up its power because of the provincial disagreements.

The main problem to get all provinces speak one voice was Quebec, the French-speaking province, which leadership tried twice to separate from the rest of Canada. Now this province has new government, not less nationalistic but definitely much more pro-Canadian. It provided the missing part of the puzzle in order to have united provinces against the federal government.

The history shows that the power of Ottawa has always increased or decreased depending on whether the provinces were united or not. In time when everything except the national security and partly the foreign relations is managed on daily base on provincial level, the huge power of taxation and redistribution of Ottawa is anachronism. The last remaining argument of keeping this power intact is the fear of some provinces (6 out of 10) to be left behind without adequate financial resources if the federal government is denied the power to redistribute from the "have-provinces" to the "have-nots". So the main problem in the road of more provincial power lies not in Ottawa but in some provincial capitals.

Forecasts after the Council of Federation was created vary from the cynical "we have seen such kind of united fronts before" to more optimistic seeing the "dawn of new era". There are some chances that at least one of the provinces will break the common front, thus destroying the possibilities of new power equilibrium with Ottawa. Such dissident province may be a "have province", unwilling to share its wealth or a "have-not province", reluctant to give-up its past financial privileges. Such outcome will be more than welcome by Ottawa. Another scenario would be to witness long trench war with no clear outcomes and perhaps some new referenda in Quebec and why not in some western provinces. This outcome is the worst scenario, scaring the investors and diminishing the country's image abroad. The third possible outcome would be gradual and organized power reversal toward even more decentralized federation. The center will keep some minimum powers and the provinces will get additional powers as much as they can. In long term this scenario seems best suiting the county's interests, given the Canadian political culture of compromise.

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* - Constitutionalism, and not constitution, for Canada has no comprehensive written document having final say on all power-sharing issues. Some very important constitutional issues are still decided by conventions.

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