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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Canada Market Update: Election, economy and the interest ratesSince our last market update some 4 months ago Canadian real estate market showed signs of remarkable achievements. The housing starts are at their 17-year highest level. The new construction has emptied thousands of rental apartments, leaving more room to bargaining for the new comers and for those on tighter budgets. There are although growing number of suggestions coming from different sources that these almost ideal opportunities for the first time homebuyers (booming economy, low interest rates, no need of downpayment) will start ending as soon as September 8. It will be surprising to buy the idea that perhaps the core argument to high the interest rates are not purely economic and financial, but political and electoral.
ElectionWith the parliament elections in Canada behind our backs and the next sequel somewhere a year from now, the only political uncertainty on the horizon is the political future of the US president George W. Bush. With the U.S. economy growing less than expected by the White House and the trade deficit becoming a political issue, Canada as a main trading partner may become main target for trade retaliation for a new Democrat administration. Even if ideologically Ottawa is closer to the Kerry's camp, economically it's more interested in Bush as a proponent of the free trade.In the past several months the trade and economic unbalances between the Unites States and Canada grew in favor of the northern country. If in the first quarter of 2004 Washington showed signs of more robust growth, the second quarter reversed this situation. The trade deficit of the States continues to preoccupy the policy-makers in Washington and has already become a central issue in the coming presidential election. Increasing the interest rates in Canada can help the current American administration. The Canadian export will go down, the American export will climb up and the first real results will be included in the American accountant books just before the November election. There will be some negative impact on the Canadian economy, but it will be only temporary compared to the uncertainties related to a new Democrat administration. Canada expects cooperation from Washington in solving the soft lumber dispute, in giving lucrative orders under AMD program and on so many other issues that make this temporary discomfort look more like strategic investment rather than trade loss.
EconomyOn the other hand, there is no economic urgency to higher the interest rates in Canada right now. The core inflation is still under control under the target level of 2%. The economy, although growing more robustly than the American, is far from overheating. The consumer confidence is at record high level. The booming real estate market, with new starts on their 17-year highest level, is gradually absorbing the demand, giving more housing options for the families of different social layers. It's a unique situation when almost everybody is gaining and almost nobody seems complaining. With 5-year mortgage loans at their lowest level since 1951, the growing construction business creates additional jobs, more families become homeowners; tenants have bigger choice of apartments.All who gain from this almost unprecedented boom won't understand the logic of the central bank, if it decides to make the credit more expensive on September 8. Dropping the ball of remarkable economic achievements hoping to catch it later may cost dearly to the Canadian Prime Minister Martin.
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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Canada.
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