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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Two-way shuttle Atlantic Canada-AlbertaAlberta is currently the richest Canadian province. It has big oil and needs lots of new workers. Atlantic Canada is the poorest region in Canada. It hasn't huge natural resources and can't provide well-paid work for its workers, not to mention its chronically high unemployment. Market logic would say that many workers from Atlantic Canada should go to Alberta where salaries are higher and professional prospects are brighter. Very few people however, relatively speaking, are making this choice. Most are still hesitating. Many of those going west are unexpectedly returning east, where they invest the money gained after months and years of hard work in Alberta oil sands. The oil boom in Alberta is unexpectedly moving up the real estate market in Atlantic Canada too.
Why the market logic doesn't always work in Canada?Canada is a federal country; like many federal countries it provides its poorer constituent parts with money taken from its richest provinces. The richest province now is Alberta; the poorest region is Atlantic, which includes four relatively small provinces. This system of financial transfers guaranteeing similar level of public services with similar level of provincial taxation in fact eliminates part of economic incentives for both the richer and the poorer provinces to move up. Like any progressive taxation system it penalizes harder those who have more and benefits those who for one or another reason get less.If Canada is a society where the market rules in all its forms, many unemployed workers from Atlantic Canada would prefer going west to Alberta, where workers are desperately wanted. By transferring enormous amount of money from west to east, including for medical case, Canadian federal government makes economic incentives of moving west less urgent. Moving west may have some positive consequences like finding more secure job and being far-better paid, but there are also some important drawbacks like higher rents or far more expensive real estate (50% to 100% depending on residence type), and higher federal taxes, people are moving into higher income brackets after all.
History of dashed hopesFor people in Atlantic Canada there are more drawbacks in moving west than just the coast of living. Many have good memories about previously dashed hopes. Since the first oil boom in mid-1970s there were as many as four oil slumps. Some of these slumps were politically orchestrated, e.g. the Ottawa's decision of early 1980s to limit oil exports and force Alberta to sell oil to other provinces at prices far below the international market levels. The current Ottawa government is much friendlier toward Alberta, the Prime Minister is an Albertan after all, but this situation may dramatically change after the next federal election. This time however it may be quite different, and many experts agree it will be different in a sense the current oil boom will last for many more years. But with so many dashed hopes in not so distant past people cannot be completely convinced to burn all bridges and just move west. To put Atlantic Canada emigration in comparative context, the movement from these four provinces to Ontario since 1970s was much more stable and one-way phenomenon, the economic booms as well as slumps in Ontario being not so dramatic.
Shuttle Atlantic Canada-AlbertaPeople's movement toward Alberta looks more like a shuttle than like a real one-way migration. Few are moving and staying permanently in Alberta. Most people are going west, working for months, then moving back to get their unemployment checks, then forth again; families are left split for months, usually fathers being sent to Alberta, and their wives and children remaining in Atlantic Canada. Few sell real estate and move for good, many more go and come back and use their fat Albertan checks to buy first residence or move up. In a sense Albertan oil is producing effects totally unexpected from market point of view. Instead of moving many people out of Atlantic Canada and make real estate prices there fall dramatically, it makes at least some people richer and therefore drives prices up.
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