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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The president of Venezuela Hugo Chavez has put an order for 100,000 Russian AK-47 assault rifles. This is in addition to already bought Russian military helicopters. This is in additional to expected bought of Russian MiG29 aircraft. This is in addition to reports of some 15,000 Cuban advisors stationed in Venezuela, presumably with no connection to the oil technologies. So far Chavez has passed below the American radars but for how long he may expect such generosity to continue? Playing brinkmanship is without any doubt one of the greatest skills of any politician. Is Chavez just testing the limits of the American patience or has he already crossed the red line?

For anyone generally familiar with the ancient Roman history, it should be of no particular difficulty to understand the basic situation reigning in the political life of Venezuela. A charismatic leader, still not a fully-fledged dictator although, buys political favors from the groups of the bottom of society, groups which everyday occupation is doing nothing outside stealing from well-to-do citizens and thus making the life of the working and business classes as unpleasant as possible. This leader feels constantly threatened to be toppled by those that don't consider the parasitism to be the ultimate social virtue. In this sense buying unsophisticated assault rifles to arm his loyal parasites is a pretty good idea. The regular military shouldn't be trusted too much, especially if you're a president in Latin America and especially if you have some experience in military coups. Something like ideologically indoctrinated Red Guards is more appropriate tool to keep the regime in place.

If that is the idea of Chavez it has a lot of sense even if it logically implies that at some future moment the country may be set ablaze by civil conflict. Ideologically the radical left anywhere in the world is prepared for such scenario, the life is a form of struggle so they don't mind to let the blood of their enemies flow if that will bring more social justice. What makes Chavez more dangerous is that he cannot only start a civil war in Venezuela; he actually may export this war in some neighboring countries or to take part in some already existing conflicts like in Colombia. The two countries have almost 2,000 km common and highly unprotected border. It's reported that it's not difficult at all to smuggle weapons across the border and one of the countries can easily be used as training bases for opponents of the neighboring regime.

The ideology of Mr. Chavez can't be confined to the national borders of Venezuela. Like any revolutionary ideology based on universal principles it will slowly die if not spread to other nations with similar social conditions. The revolution in Cuba was luckily enough isolated by the geography. On the one hand, that made more difficult to topple the Castro's regime, but on the other hand, that made more difficult for Castro to export the revolution. Venezuela is a very difference case. It isn't an island and its borders are porous in both directions.

So far the U.S. has acted as if the main problem with Venezuela is its eccentric but nevertheless democratically elected president. Perhaps there are still naïve persons in Washington who believe Chavez will go anyway when his mandate ends and it should end somewhere in 2006. Perhaps the same naïve persons still believe Mr. Putin will leave his office in 2008. There is also a lot of naïveté to hope that an American oil embargo as a last resort will make Chavez more reasonable. The world oil markets are so closely integrated that the oil the Americans refuse to buy will be bought by another country that now uses suppliers that will shift to the American market. Furthermore, no true revolutionary will trade off his ideas for dollars. Unfortunately the true revolutionaries understand only one language and it can be better described in terms of blood and power.

100,000 AK-47 for Venezuela should be the last warning bell for those who are concerned with preserving the relative peace in Latin America. There may be no other warning bells. It's mainly the nations living there to make up their mind and decide what societies they want to live in. And always to remember, whatever it comes, these nations will be either the main beneficiaries or the first victims of their own choices.

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