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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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1 May 2006

Croatia: Outside EU may not be so bad

© 2006, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Croatia seems to have lost another year, maybe more, on its way to the European Union. This however may not be a bad thing after all given the falling support for membership among the public opinion in this former Yugoslav republic. On the contrary, the country may use this one or more additional years outside the Union to make itself more attractive for investors without complying with all EU financial and economic requirements. After two years of membership for some other former communist countries the government of Croatia may have decided that the short-term benefits aren't so obvious given the costs to be paid.

All former Yugoslav republics have plans to become one day or another EU members. One, Slovenia, has already joined the club. Another, Croatia, has already started accession negotiations. The others still lag behind hoping one day to achieve the same final goal. Croatia, if not for the wars of secession, could have been ready to join together with Slovenia, i.e. by 2004. This war pulled back the country in many ways. It made its political system much less democratic for many years; it led to economic stagnation outside the sectors that were lined with the war efforts; it made the country unattractive for foreign tourists; it led to human rights violations that still need to be mended.

Croatia was losing one year after another in getting prepared for the EU membership, and instead of getting inside together with Slovenia, it would get in much later even compared to Romania and Bulgaria, two countries with much poorer economic records just 15 years ago. To illustrate these postponements, half of 2005 was squandered only because of some problems with deportation of some former war criminals. On the other hand, the EU has no need to move faster with Croatia. In fact, Brussels enjoys the situation when a candidate country itself makes its accession more difficult. As the case of Croatia indicates, there isn't a political will, especially in Brussels to make this process smoother.

The interesting fact is that Croatia also seems less enthusiastic to make all sorts of concessions and to agree to pay any price in order to get into the EU as soon as possible. In the last 2 years the support for EU membership has dramatically fallen from 70% to 45%. If this trend keeps on then the Croatia government won't even feel any political pressure to make concessions. What EU political analysts call 'European leverage' cannot exist unless the public opinion strongly endorses EU membership, making the government own political survival dependent upon negotiation process progress.

This postponement with the EU membership may not be a bad thing after all. Brussels usually imposes on each candidate some criteria, and some economic competitors within the EU will always threaten to use their right to veto the candidate country unless their narrow interests are protected, usually at the expense of the candidate industries and services. Croatia is famous with its tourist sector, a natural competitor to some EU members like Greece or Portugal. Being outside the EU may allow Croatia to use financial incentives to encourage this economic sector that will be impossible after the country joins the EU. Being outside the EU also will allow Croatia not to solve satisfactorily for both sides the problem of the Serb refugees that have fled the country almost 11 years ago.

It isn't in the interests of Croatia to renounce its EU membership bid altogether. This will put the country is weaker international position than some other former Yugoslav republics once they join the EU. On the other hand, some postponement in the process may not affect Croatia negatively. It may even bring some unexpected benefits by increasing its comparative advantages and postponing some sensitive problems' solution for better political times.


Country profile:
  • Area: 56,542 sq km
  • Coastline: 5,835 km (mainland 1,777 km, islands 4,058 km)
  • Population: 4.5 million (July 2006 est.)
  • Population growth rate: -0.03% (2006 est.)
  • Net migration rate: 1.58 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2006 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 74.68 years
  • GDP: $53.56 billion (2005 est.)
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $11,600 (2005 est.)
  • Unemployment rate: 18.7% (2004)
  • Main trade partners: Italy, Germany, Slovenia, and Austria.
  • Internet users: 1.3 million (2005)
(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2006, Reuters)

EU-Croatian past bilateral relations

  • 1992 - EU recognizes Croatia's independence.
  • 1997 - The EU Council of Ministers establishes political and economic conditions for the development of bilateral relations with Croatia.
  • 1999 - The EU proposes a new Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP) for the five countries of Southeastern Europe, including Croatia.
  • 2000 - Establishment of EU-Croatia Consultative Task Force. Upgrading the EC Office of the Special Envoy in Zagreb to a permanent delegation. Extension of the duty-free access to EU market for products from Croatia.
  • 2001 - EU signs Stabilization and Association agreement with Croatia. The European Commission adopted at the end of 2001 a country strategy for Croatia, which covers 2002-2006 and provides a framework for EC assistance.
  • 2002 - EU and Croatia sign an Interim Agreement, covering the trade and trade-related measures.
  • 2003 - Croatia submitted an application for EU membership.
  • 2004 - EU made Croatia an entry candidate.
  • 2005 - Start of pre EU membership screening after 6 months of postponement.
  • 2006 - Start of EU membership negotiations.

EU-Croatian tentative plans for the future

  • 2008/09 - End of the negotiations (subject to postponement).
  • 2010/11 - EU membership (subject to postponement).

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Croatia.

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