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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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27 June 2008

Croatia: Again postponement on the road to EU

© 2008, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Croatia seems to have lost another year, maybe more, on its way to the European Union. This time the whole responsibility of this postponement lies on Brussels. The Irish 'no' to the Lisbon union treaty looks as a sufficient pretext for the incoming French presidency of the union to put the enlargement in the freezing chamber. But Croatia doesn't lose the time of attracting new investors, betting on its almost inevitable entry into the union. Some of them may even profit from the fact that the country isn't still required to comply with all EU financial and economic requirements. After four years of membership for some other former communist countries in Eastern Europe, the government of Croatia would rather conclude that the short-term benefits of membership aren't so obvious given the high social costs to be paid.

All former Yugoslav republics have plans to become EU members one day or another. One, Slovenia, has already joined the club in 2004. Another, Croatia, has already started accession negotiations. The others still lag behind hoping to achieve the same final goal sooner rather than later. Croatia, if not for the Yugoslav wars of secession, could have been ready to join the union together with Slovenia, i.e. by 2004. This war pulled back the country in many ways. It made its political system much less democratic for many years; it led to economic stagnation outside the sectors that were engaged with the war efforts; it made the country unattractive for many foreign tourists, especially from Western Europe; last but not least, it led to human rights violations that still need to be mended.

Croatia is losing now at least one more year before the membership after the Irish voters rejected the Lisbon treaty, a new version of the EU constitution rejected in two referenda in 2006. Thus, instead of getting inside the union together with Slovenia, it would get in much later even compared to Romania and Bulgaria, two countries with still poorer economic records, not to mention their clumsy public administrations. If, in the past, the responsibility of postponement lied on Croatia, now it's Brussels who's responsible for the delay. Unless some miracle happens, Croatia would have to wait until 2011 or 2012 to join the union.

Another interesting fact is that Croatia also seems less enthusiastic to make all sorts of concessions and to agree to pay any price in order to get into the EU as soon as possible. In the last couple of years the public support for EU membership has dramatically fallen. If this trend keeps on, then the Croatian government won't even feel any political pressure to make concessions. What some EU political analysts call 'European leverage' cannot exist unless the public opinion strongly endorses EU membership, making the government own political survival dependent upon negotiation process progress.

This postponement with the EU membership may not be a bad thing after all. Brussels usually imposes on each candidate some conditions, and some economic competitors within the EU will always threaten to use their right to veto the candidate country unless their narrow interests are protected, usually at the expense of the candidate industries and services. Croatia is famous with its tourist sector, a natural competitor to some EU members like Greece or Portugal. Being outside the EU may allow Croatia to use financial incentives to encourage this economic sector that will be impossible or much harder after the country joins the EU.

It isn't in the interests of Croatia to renounce its EU membership bid altogether. This will put the country in weaker international position than some other former Yugoslav republics once they join the EU. On the other hand, some postponement in the process may not affect Croatia negatively as is seen by the economic statistics. It may even bring some unexpected benefits by increasing its comparative advantages and postponing some sensitive economic issues for better political times.


Country profile:
  • Area: 56,542 sq km
  • Coastline: 5,835 km (mainland 1,777 km, islands 4,058 km)
  • Population: 4.5 million (July 2008 est.)
  • Population growth rate: -0.04% (2007 est.)
  • Net migration rate: 1.58 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2007 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 75.13 years
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $15,500 (2007 est.)
  • Unemployment rate: 11.8% (2007)
  • Main trade partners: Italy, Germany, Slovenia, Russia, and Austria.
  • Internet users: 1.6 million (2007)
(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2008, Reuters)

EU-Croatian past bilateral relations

  • 1992 - EU recognizes Croatia's independence.
  • 1997 - The EU Council of Ministers establishes political and economic conditions for the development of bilateral relations with Croatia.
  • 1999 - The EU proposes a new Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP) for the five countries of Southeastern Europe, including Croatia.
  • 2000 - Establishment of EU-Croatia Consultative Task Force. Upgrading the EC Office of the Special Envoy in Zagreb to a permanent delegation. Extension of the duty-free access to EU market for products from Croatia.
  • 2001 - EU signs Stabilization and Association agreement with Croatia. The European Commission adopted at the end of 2001 a country strategy for Croatia, which covers 2002-2006 and provides a framework for EC assistance.
  • 2002 - EU and Croatia sign an Interim Agreement, covering the trade and trade-related measures.
  • 2003 - Croatia submitted an application for EU membership.
  • 2004 - EU made Croatia an entry candidate.
  • 2005 - Start of pre EU membership screening after 6 months of postponement.
  • 2006 - Start of EU membership negotiations.
  • 2007 - Negotiations on up to a half of the chapters of the accession treaty are opened.
  • 2008 - Croatia's entry into the EU may be postponed as a result of the Irish rejection of the EU treaty.

EU-Croatian tentative plans for the future

  • 2009/10 - End of the negotiations (subject to postponement).
  • 2011/12 - EU membership (subject to postponement).

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Croatia.

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