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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Cuba: It's far from overFidel Castro is ill, so does say official Havana. His brother Raul is now in charge. Miami celebrates the news. Some have waited there for this moment since 1959. For a country where most people have been born since the revolution however this must be a real shock. It doesn't mean that all Cubans in Cuba love Fidel Casto. The reality is far from that. In a similar vein it doesn't mean we must all love the law of gravity in order to appreciate its presence. Fidel Castro will remain in the history books as a dictator, benevolent or horrid, it depends on the interpretations. He was however undoubtedly a person that made his people feeling secure; this makes all Cubans feel insecure now, when he's officially out of business. But it's not over yet. Fidel and his brother Raul cannot beat the death. As one prominent Polish dissident rightly put it however, the real problems of the communism start after it begins collapsing. Cuba is different from almost all other former communist states that collapsed in late 1980s. Unlike many of them its communism is homegrown. Unlike some of them with homegrown communism (USSR and Yugoslavia), Cuba has no ethnic problems that may lead to separation and imperial implosion. In this respect the only former communist country in Europe that may be used as an example for where Cuba is heading is ... Albania of late 1980s. It was a small and underdeveloped country with a strong sense of nationalism and officially indoctrinating xenophobia. It too was considered as utterly backward even in the communist context. Some experts still even doubt whether it's a European country or a country from the Middle East, accidentally happening to be geographically in Europe. Cuba cannot be more communist without Castro than with him, meaning the only thing his successors can hope for is to keep the system as long as possible, hopefully intact. For most of them this is the only chance they have to stay in power. With the economic reforms now in full speed in communist-ruled countries like China and Vietnam, the only country Cuban nomenclature may offer its services is North Korea. Outside it, the only place the Cuban military can offer their valuable expertise is to some backward leftist dictatorial regime in Africa. With so many 'good' options or carrier development, it isn't surprising to see that the Cuban nomenclature will prefer to stay in the country fighting for every inch of its power. Cuba is a military dictatorship, but quite unusual compared to most Latin America juntas. The army is supposedly protecting the island from American invasion. This is its primary goal. Its real goal however is protecting the regime from its people, as almost in any other former communist country in Eastern Europe and the former USSR. The homegrown opposition in Cuba so far has been weak, thus the army hasn't yet shown its true face; the reason why most Cubans don't consider the army as an oppressing force is that the visible oppression, as in most communist countries, is done by other groups like the police, the party organizations, and some mass organizations. As far as the opposition remains weak, the army will stay away from the streets. When the opposition shows up in large numbers, the army may intervene like in Tiananmen Square in June 1989. Military intervention to save the regime is a double-edged sward however. If it fails, like in Albania in 1990, and in the Soviet Union in 1991, the regime is over. If it succeeds, like in China in 1989 or in Poland earlier in 1981, the regime changes its face overnight. It may remain in place as far as it has full military support. The party gradually loses its total grip on power. It doesn't make sense anymore to pretend that the people rule the country. Everybody sees who's the master and why he's. The raw force replaces sophisticated ideology. The main avenues then are two, to make people get rich and thus buy some time for the regime, this is what we see in China; to fail miserably with economic development policy and finally give up the power like in Poland. If former communist countries history can be used as a textbook, Cuba will see first after Fidel Castro is gone a gradual change of people in charge within the ruling elite. As far as the opposition may grow, the elite will at some point try to use military force to suppress the opposition. We consider the chances of this military intervention as significant, even better than in China in 1989. The next years for the regime however will be more difficult given the American embargo and the world understanding that the regime is doomed. Military rule coupled with economic incompetence will put the communist party in an ambivalent role of both ruler and an opposition. The split within the elite will lead to political opening and finally to... Many will hope this will be a liberal democracy, but my instincts say it's more likely to be an anarchy and mass criminality.
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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Cuba.
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