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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Eastern Europe 2005: Different grades of stability
 Eastern Europe will be that half of Europe that will offer again all sort of interesting news in the new year. Being internally divided in several zones according to their grades of stability and attitudes toward their neighbors, this group of former communist countries will keep its image in the media as unpredictable and volatile. Anyone trying to put all these countries into one general trend will fail miserably. Anyone who says that something can't happen somewhere may be bitterly disappointed. But some events may be more likely to occur in one country instead of another.
East Central EuropeThe countries representing this sub-region, Poland, Czech and Slovak Republics and Hungary, arguably also Slovenia, will continue enjoying relative political stability compared to other sub-regions and relative economic privation compared to their richer western neighbors. These countries are relatively ethnically homogenous making them more stable all the rest being equal. Except small land border stretch of Poland with Russian Federation in Kaliningrad, they don't have any direct connections with their former imperial masters in Moscow or Belgrade so they shouldn't fear any clear and present external military threat. On the other hand, being part of the European Union and NATO makes them feel more important internationally than they actually are. They still take the lion share of the western investments for the whole region, which allows their population to enjoy living standard in the fork between Western Europe and the other post-communist states. Their political stability is almost perfect. Any deviation of this perfection in short-term seems unthinkable, but because there are not unthinkable things in Eastern Europe, we'll say that such deviations are much less likely than elsewhere.
Baltic StatesThis group includes Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. When it comes to economic performances they come second only to East Central Europe. They are part of the European Union since May 2004 and also enjoy feeling more important internationally than their mere size would otherwise suggest. When it comes to political stability, the closer presence to their former masters in Moscow just can't be overestimated. Except in Lithuania, the Russians in this sub-region are noticeable minority. Another story is that perhaps half of them have settled down more than 300 years ago as old-believers fleeing Moscow religious persecutions. Some of them feel discriminated and Moscow under the mask of humanitarian concerns try to make these countries more malleable to its foreign polical influence. More or less that's the snapshot we have now and no doubt we'll have to see this again and again in the year to come. The situation in the Baltic countries seems like stalemate: Moscow can't impose its leadership; the Baltic countries can't block Moscow at least to try it again later.
Eastern Balkans + CroatiaThis group includes Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and arguably Turkey, which was promised to begin talks to join EU. The prospects of these countries are that they eventually will join the EU. Romania and Bulgaria already have a date to do it by 2007. Croatia will wait a little more. For Turkey the final European integration some say isn't so sure but it seems it will be only a matter of time. This sub-region, except Croatia, is even poorer than East Central Europe and the Baltic States. Also except Croatia for a short period some 100 years ago they never had traditionally rule of law states. Always obeying persons instead of laws they all have much more to learn from the West than people in Czech Republic that had more recent prewar constitutional experience. The good news is that all these countries seem not threatened by foreign powers. They can focus on domestic political development and democratic consolidation without looking at their religious and ethnic minorities as foreign Trojan horses. Some of them may even try to get back home those who were expelled during distant and not so distant past.
Western BalkansThis is one of the most problematic sub-regions and I'm afraid the chances to see again bloodletting in 2005 are more than likely. These countries are Serbia (including Kosovo) and Montenegro, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania. At least three ethnic groups feel very uncomfortable with the current territorial division. The Albanians want to separate from Serbia and to federate Macedonia; the Serbians don't want this separation to happen and probably look for the Serbian parts of Bosnia as eventual compensation in kind; the population of Montenegro may opt for separation from Serbian-led confederation. Wherever we look at the map, everything seems shaky. Just one shot in Kosovo may produce chain reaction in the whole sub-region. The absence of evil-reincarnations like Milosevic in fact may only make the task of peace keeping more difficult. Why? Because the West feels more relaxed when Milosevic is on trial, but some people in Kosovo and Bosnia just don't need charismatic leaders to restart their small wars. Like the East Central Europe is the sub-region where serious problems are almost unthinkable in 2005, the Western Balkans is sub-region where lack of problems in the months and years ahead will be tantamount to political miracle.
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