It has been 4 years since East Timor officially was recognized as an independent state and 6 years since Indonesia released its grip over this tiny territory after a quarter of a century of mass killings. Problems to be solved are enormous. State building is undoubtedly the main among them. The country that started so promising as an independent nation may collapse and turn into another Haiti or Somalia, or Eritrea, states on paper without any legitimate power for their citizens.

The territory of East Timor became a place of interest for the European colonial powers a long time ago. For centuries it was dominated by Portugal, which explains the influence of the Catholic Church and the Portuguese language along the myriad of native languages. The brief Japanese occupation during the World War II sparked local nationalist feelings as in many other places in Southeast Asia. After declaring independence from its former colonial masters in mid 1970s the territory was occupied by Indonesia. What followed can only be described as mass killings bordering genocide. A quarter of the population of less than a million was exterminated. The West used the relative weakness of Indonesia in late 1990s and forced its government to withdraw from East Timor. It seemed as nothing could stop now its belated modernization.

In the romantic dreaming of national liberation literature the nations get freedom and this freedom lead to prosperity. In reality the road to prosperity is much more complicated. Freedom alone isn't enough. Prosperity is only one possible avenue; the others lead to self-isolation or chaos. There isn't need to show all examples of countries that took the wrong ways. It suffices to say that East Timor as far as we can judge is heading straight toward chaos. In a country with probably more Nobel Peace laureates per capita than any other country in the world, it's the strong social class above the line of hunger that really misses. The country is among the poorest in the globe and the main occupation is subsistence agriculture, meaning that one bad harvest can lead to starvation.

The Western-sponsored liberation and the way it was done created additional problems. The West provided enough food and medicine as far as its troops were stationed there. Once gone the East Timorese government had to care about all this, and in addition, to pay for maintenance of what was built with international help. The good international intentions thus led to more instead of less economic problems, the poor country had to pay for goods that clearly went beyond its means. This is a recipe for social disaster. Hunger, mass protests, collapsing law and order, need of new international military presence; this is East Timor years after its formal independence.

The verdict seems clear that East Timor isn't ready to assume the costs of its independence. This isn't a country that can guarantee even minimal security for its people and for its visitors. A strong international military presence is needed to guarantee peace until the country goes well ahead in its state building and nation building projects. These processes may take decades.

East Timor (Timor-Leste) country profile:

• Area: 15,007 sq km.
• Natural resources: gold, petroleum, and natural gas.
• Population: 800,000 to 1 million (July 2006 est.).
• Population growth rate: 2.08% (2006 est.).
• Net migration rate: 0 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2006 est.).
• Life expectancy at birth: 66.26 years (CIA), 55.5 years (Reuters).
• Ethnic groups: Malayo-Polynesian, Papuan, with small Chinese minority.
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $400 (CIA), $370 (Reuters) (2005 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 42% (2003 est.)
• Unemployment rate: more than 50% (2001).
• Main trading partner: Indonesia.
• Internet users: 1,000 (2004).

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2006; Reuters)