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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Forecast: Real estate market in Central and Eastern Europe in 2001
Central and Eastern Europe are going on several speeds towards the goal of full integration within the EU. It is believed that the most advanced countries have already passed the barrier of no-return. Some of them have already become NATO members and the western investors feel very convenient making business there. Three countries in the region alone - Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary accounts for almost 90 percent of all foreign investments (100 billion) made in Central and Eastern Europe (15 countries) during the last decade. Thus for these advanced countries the 2001 will just be another year of catching up with the Western Europe in matters of productivity, technology, living standard and with the real estate prices and rents levels. Not so bright is the picture in the 3 Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that once were part of the former Soviet Union. The problems there could arise by the Russian in fact expansionist policy towards its CIS neighbors. Nobody among the big western investors will put at risk some significant amount of money making business with the countries that seem helpless in the face of Russian military machine**. NATO so far didn't extend its military guarantees to cover these 3 states and the investors would prefer to wait until the western policy in this region be clarified enough. The lack of sufficient investments will keep the real estate market in the Baltic former Soviet Union states around its last year levels. The picture is also different in South-Eastern Europe where at the end of 2000 the last communist regime of Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia was overturned. In this region the problems in 2001 could also arise from the political sphere. This time it won't be the fear of foreign intervention but the lack of market-oriented domestic policies. In Romania the victory of the former communists in the Presidential and Parliamentarian elections already started to pull out of the country some of the foreign investors. This may be seen in the office market in the capital city of Bucharest. In Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) nobody seems to know whether exactly the federation will hold on till the end of this year. It is also unknown whether the former President Milosevic will try to return to power with force (he still refuses to leave the Presidential residence in Belgrade). Serbia still lacks market oriented reforms and it will take many years before attracting sufficient foreign capitals in the country. In Bulgaria there are also fears that the former communists can win the election set for the late spring. So the investors probably will use the tactic of wait-and-see if these fears will materialize in the coming months. The expectations are that the real estate market in Bulgaria will keep its actual price and rent levels in the coming 12 months. The government plan of magnifying *** the arable land lots could push up further the land prices. It was reported recently that the land in Bulgaria (very cheap compared to Western Europe price levels) has increased its value by 25 percent in 2000. There are two things that could hurdle the positive developments in Central and Eastern Europe economy in the coming year. The first would be a sudden economic crisis in Western Europe that would diminish the trade between the two parts of the continent. The second would be a political (and/or military) confrontation between the West in general and Russia that could pull out many investors from some countries of the "buffer zone". These threats aren't very probable to materialize in the next 12 months but even the slightest chance of them to happen could have negative effects on some countries in the region that don't benefit from NATO military protection. ---- * - The end of the talks doesn't mean these countries have already become members of EU. It is expected that the process of ratification of the membership-treaty in all national parliaments and in the European parliament will take another 2 years. So the earliest most realistic date for the beginning of EU enlargement eastward will be 1st January 2004. ** - Recently Russia was reported to have transferred near the border of Lithuania short-range missiles capable of carrying out nuclear weapons. Moscow denied the report but this information caught the attention of the public in the region. *** - If a farmer in Bulgaria so far has owned several smaller parcels they will be exchanged for one bigger.
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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Europe.
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