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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The people of Ecuador toppled president Lucio Gutierrez in what up to now appears to be a bloodless coup. In a country that have seen seven presidents in less than 10 years, most of whom are hiding abroad, and 3 coups since mid-1990s, that's hardly a news. A country that we predicted 2 years ago may collapse financially following the bad example of Argentina did so not only financially but also politically. The whole region, plagued with corruption and cronyism, may soon face the same fate, with leftist demagogues like Venezuelan Chavez reaping the fruits of the popular anger. Without democratic consolidation this region is doomed to remain economically backward and in constant retreat from the more advanced world.

The militaries in Latin America prefer today not to make real coups but to allow the popular discontent to topple down regimes that in the "good old days" needed more hardware to throw on the history dustbin. The former president Gutierrez of Ecuador that himself was involved in a military coup some 5 years ago, had to leave the president palace and to ask political refuge at the Brazilian embassy. His fate is still unclear but by far it's the least interesting point in the story. He may share the fate of many other former Ecuadorian presidents and have a nice life abroad.

The substantial issue is what will happen to his country that didn't need such political turbulence? It may slip further into political chaos; it may restore the system of corruption and cronyism under the next president and former vice-president Alfredo Palacio; and also it may at least try to get out of this mess by establishing a new political system that will make impossible such turmoil in the future.

Falling into chaos is not a real option in this region. The only state that the world looks upon as partially failed is Columbia, but in reality a parallel administrative system exists in the territories that are outside the governmental control. The second option, putting the crony system to work for the new rulers will make similar coups more likely in the future. In a country where the corruption costs the society $2 billion per year and which is the second most corrupt country in Latin America after Paraguay, it's always tempting to try to put hand on this fortune by ousting the former rulers.

Leaving the system as it is will only make new coups more likely to occur, but such political uncertainties won't play in favor of the country's ambitions to get out of the chronic poverty and economic dependency, understood there as permanent economic backwardness. Only by making the political system beneficial for large social groups the costs of new coups will be considered as intolerably high. The only effective way of making less likely the political revolutions is by turning the citizens into political shareholders of the state enterprise, the other way to call the state democratic. As the example of Central and Eastern Europe since 1989 and the example of Far East since the WWII have shown, only a consolidated democratic or a consolidated authoritarian regimes can make possible quick and successful modernization. Partially democratic / partially authoritarian regimes usually can't provide enough political support for quick modernization and fall due to internal contradictions of their building principles. Ruling out the necessity of establishing consolidated dictatorships in Latin American leaves the only one remaining option, democratic consolidation as way to accelerate modernization and to allow fair share of every citizen in the public affairs.

Country profile:

• Area: 283,560 sq. km
• Population: 13.2 million (July 2004 est.)
• Population growth rate: 1.03% (2004 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 76.01 years
• Ethnic groups: mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 65%, Amerindian 25%, Spanish and others 7%, and black 3%.
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $3,300 (2003 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 65% (2003 est.)
• Main export: Petroleum, bananas, cut flowers, shrimp
• Main trade partners: US and Colombia.
• Currency: US dollar (since March 2000).
• Internet users: 569,700 (2003)

(Source: CIA - World Factbook 2005)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Ecuador.