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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Heading toward a left-of-center political regime in Ecuador may sour the life of some big oil and other sectors companies operating for years in the country. Officially nothing has to change in the life of hundreds of foreign small investors who have purchased residential properties and live in the country. In fact however there may be some link between the fates of these two categories of investors. Despite the official propaganda the history teaches us that there is a correlation between the two, and that the small investors should pay attention at the way the big companies are treated.

Ecuador is a poor country like many others in Central and South America. It's blessed with two natural assets: raw energy for export, and beautiful landscape to attract some wealthy foreigners. These assets however are highly volatile and depend on many factors, international and domestic. International markets set the oil prices; the level of attractiveness is set by the relative advantage of this country on the international market of tourism and retirement destinations.

It seems the local government has enough with some big foreign companies, especially those operating in the now highly profitable oil sector. For the government putting a hand on this lucrative business will give an access to large pool of easy money to be later redistributed among the poorer layer of population. Such moves always lead to contentions regarding property rights, and a country like Ecuador with biased judicial system will always have the burden of proof that its government acts in good faith.

Officially this contention between the government, current and future*, has nothing to do with the fate of hundreds of small individual investors, most of them American and European retirees living in relatively cheap by 'Northern' standards residences. In fact, however, these are correlated policies. In a country where big investors feel insecure the small investors should have the same feelings. The big business is in a sense an indicator for what may come later to everyone else. This doesn't mean that all small investors should expect an imminent confiscation of their houses and parcels, far from that. This suggests that once a legal system against the owners is put in motion, it may easily target every owner. And when this 'legal' system is coupled with nationalist rhetoric, then all foreign investors should be ready with contingency plans or exit strategies.

Ecuador may be on the verge of experiencing large social redistributive policies, hopefully not on the scale of a socialist state of soviet type, but clearly much deeper than some West European social-democratic models. The big contentious issue will turn around the big investors and the role of international companies in economic life. What will remain below the screens and will hardly make headlines will concern the myriad of smaller investors, which may fall prey of this conflict of giants.

* - Early polls show that in October 2006 the government will pass to left-of-center socialist candidate for president Leon Roldos.

Country profile:

• Area: 283,560 sq. km.
• Population: 13.5 million (July 2006 est.).
• Population growth rate: 1.5% (2006 est.).
• Life expectancy at birth: 76.42 years.
• Ethnic groups: mestizo (mixed Amerindian and white) 65%, Amerindian 25%, Spanish and others 7%, and black 3%.
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $3,900 (2005 est.).
• Population below poverty line: 41% (2005 est.).
• Main export: petroleum, bananas, cut flowers, shrimp.
• Main trade partners: US, Colombia, and Panama.
• Currency: US dollar (since March 2000).
• Internet users: 624,600 (2005).

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2006, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Ecuador.