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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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One of the most important events in the Middle East since the creation of Israel more than 50 years ago was its official recognition by Egypt. The peace reached in later 1970s by Sadat, Begin and Carter made a new large Arab-Israel war almost impossible as only to prove the old saying that "there would be neither lasting peace nor big war in the Middle East without Egypt". A sudden regime change in Egypt and coming into power of radical politicians can change this peaceful picture emphasizing on the second part of the saying. The irony is that such change could occur not as a result of anti-American plot; in fact such change is a logical consequence of the new regional American doctrine. Democracy in the Arab world isn't possible without democracy in the largest Arab country in terms of population.

The main premise of the new-old American foreign political doctrine is that democracy leads to peace and prosperity and authoritarian regimes lead to tensions, conflicts and wars. In general this may be the case among the democratic nations, which usually don't wage wars against one another. In general this may be also the case in the Middle East when one of the main causes for international tensions is the regimes' fear of being overthrown by opposition supported by foreign powers. This premise although doesn't take into considerations some noticeable exceptions. Iran before the revolution was an authoritarian state but caused less international crises than after the revolution when the population was given limited say in the public affairs. Saudi Arabia is the opposite of democratic policy but its government causes less international problems than if the power is taken by popular vote by people like Bin Laden. Egypt is by no stretch of imagination a functioning democracy but it lives in peace with the Arab's archrival Israel since 1979.

To allow free and fair election in Iraq isn't the same as to compel the western client states Egypt and Saudi Arabia to make free and fair elections. This isn't to say that their governments won't obey if really compelled to do so. Egypt for example is heavily dependent economically on the U.S. There is no way for its huge population to be fed by local products. And this population is still growing. Not even a real pressure, just a small but determined sign from Washington and Mubarak will be out of the picture. The real problems will come next.

What kind of political system Egypt will have without strong quasi one-party rule? Even if these are moderate political circles that are ready to maintain the peace with Israel, how they will solve the chronic economic problems of Egypt? Even a short period of political instability will dry out the incomes from tourism. Even a short period of instability will increase the transit insurance fees for using Suez, the main gate for the oil toward the Western markets.

In short term there will be a hell with no guarantees that at the end there will be a paradise. The population will still work on less than 3% of the land; there still will be a food shortage. No matter who is in power, military, liberals, or radicals will have to take into account the economic and security constraints that are imposed by the geography and the climate. So will Washington dare to implement its own democratic doctrine to Egypt? Even if the answer is affirmative it seems that Egypt isn't rather the first candidate in the list of new Middle Eastern democracies.

Egypt country profile:

• Area: 1,001,450 sq km
• Land use: less than 3%
• Natural hazards: periodic droughts; frequent earthquakes, flash floods, landslides; hot windstorms; dust storms, sandstorms.
• Population: 76 million
• Population growth rate: 1.83% (2004 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 70.71 years
• Religions: Muslim (mostly Sunni) 94%, Coptic Christian and other 6%
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $4,000 (2003 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 16.7%
• Main trading partners: US, EU, China, India, Saudi Arabia.
• Economic aid (recipient): $1.2 billion (2001)
• Internet users: 2.7 million (2003)

(Source: CIA - The World Factbook 2004)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Egypt.