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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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20 April 2007

Egypt: Following the path in all directions

© 2007, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Egypt lives by three major policy issues, each of them representing a particular logic. These are the international context of peace and negotiations between Arab countries and Israel, the economic modernization and liberalization, involving the European Union, and the political transition on the top of the state. These issues haven't changed their nature as such since our last analysis in 2006; they still largely dominate the social agenda of the country. Here after, we present most recent developments within each particular topic. It seems that the small war in the Middle East between Israel and Lebanon in 2006 has unlocked hidden potential for positive developments in the region, and that Egypt is part of them.

Comprehensive Arab-Israel peace

Even the small by the Middle Eastern standards war of 2006 between Israel and Lebanon showed that the military options have become completely outdated. If during 1960s and 1970s military option was still considered as a way to decide the conflict once and for all, and during 1980s some limited operations were still on the agenda; now it's clear, military solution doesn't solve anything. But the unexpected by-effect of the war was the understanding that the peace by diplomatic means has no alternative. This was a good time for the 'doves' in the region to ally the other Arab countries in offering Israel a peace and normalization of relations. Not surprisingly, it's Egypt together with Jordan that is designated by the Arab world to sell the plan to the Israelis. Ironically enough, in general, with some minor corrections, this is the plan that sank in 2000, leaving a space for yet another Palestinian rebellion. The policy toward Israel that Egypt followed since mid-1970s is finally becoming official Arab policy. Together with that the position and the leverage of Egypt is growing significantly, not only within the region, but also vis-à-vis its western allies.

Economic opening

Egypt keeps on track the process of economic liberalization too. This development appears clearest of all in its relations with the European Union. In March this year Egypt and Brussels signed new Action Plan for cooperation for the next 3-5 years. The EU intends to support the Egyptian economy by providing almost one billion dollars, a package that may attract some additional up to a half billion dollars from private investors. This package is a clear signal from Brussels that Europe supports liberal economic reforms, and that it intends to help the Egyptian government overcome some temporary economic difficulties that may be associated with some of these reforms, e.g. liberalization of some consumer prices, or some business deregulations.

Heir apparent

Like in many other 'republican' Arab regimes, in Egypt the question of who will inherit the head of state is paramount, especially given the old age of the current head of state, Hosni Mubarak. The recent major development on this issue is that the president's son Gamal Mubarak will get married. For those who just turn on their TV sets, this event may not have any special link to the question of political transition after Mubarak the Senior, but the link is direct. In traditional societies, and most people in Egypt are traditionalists in any meaning of the term, the manhood comes with the family; and being a head of state requires being a 'true' man first. Gamal Mubarak is already a deputy leader of the ruling National Democratic Party, and once he is officially put in line with traditional perceptions for a ahead of state, nothing will prevent him for running for the office of his father in 2011.

Egypt country profile:
  • Area: 1,001,450 sq km
  • Land use: less than 3%
  • Natural hazards: periodic droughts; frequent earthquakes, flash floods, landslides; hot windstorms; dust storms, sandstorms.
  • Population: 80.3 million (July 2007 est.)
  • Population growth rate: 1.72% (2007 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 71.57 years (2007 est.)
  • Religions: Muslim (mostly Sunni) 94%, Coptic Christian and other 6%
  • Literacy (age 15 and over can read and write): 57.7%
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $4,200 (2006 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 20%
  • Main trading partners: the U.S., EU, China, and Saudi Arabia.
  • Economic aid (recipient): $1.1 billion (2002)
  • Internet users: 5 million (2005)
(Sources: CIA The World Factbook 2007, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Egypt.

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