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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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A new round of what some day may be known as the 'Russian revenge' is taking place in Eastern Europe. This time the county put under Russian pressure is Estonia, a former Soviet republic, plus a former part of the Tsarist Russian empire, a country where a third of the population has the Russian as mother tongue. The cause for this conflict is rather minor; the relocation of a bronze statue of Soviet soldier from a town square in Tallinn to a nearby military cemetery. Enough reason for Moscow to mobilize again the ultra-nationalist feelings, just in time for the parliament and presidential elections, scheduled for the end of this year and the beginning of the next one. It's the reaction of the West that will determine whether this Russian provocation will be the last, or whether the blackmail against the small European countries that happen geographically to border Russia will become a routine.

The reason, as stated, for the current confrontation is rather minor; the Soviet Union built myriad of monuments commemorating its victory over Nazi Germany. In a sense, these monuments had to convey the barely hidden message that Soviet troops are always ready to come and liberate those who try to get away from the 'people's brotherhood'. Not surprising then that many nations in Eastern Europe see these monuments as symbols of national subservience, as symbols of the Soviet (Russia) might only. Even less surprising is that Moscow sees these monuments as one of its last vestiges of its power over its ex-European colonies. The other main lasting vestige is without any doubt the communist former secret police informers that still may work for their former masters in Moscow. Which explains why Moscow is so allergic when it comes to relocating Soviet monuments and for opening communist time files.

The timing of this Russo-Estonian confrontation is far from random. Russia is approaching fast parliament and presidential elections. Finding an enemy, better small and rather harmless, but symbolically significant, is necessary for additional mobilization of Russians around the current political oligarchy. The story with the monument in Estonia perfectly fits with this description. Russians love when their leaders remind them about the past military achievements. What a better achievement than the great victory over Nazi Germany in 1945 that took some 28 million lives in the ex-Soviet Union. Trying to preserve the monument where it was since 1950s is like preserving the status of Russia as a great power. If a tiny Estonia can relocate it at will, then this status may fade away.

The most important element of this confrontation, actually, is the reaction of the West. Estonia is both a member of the European Union and of NATO. Russia isn't. Estonians have always identified their nation with Europe; for Russia such assertion will be premature at best. On the other hand, Russia is still a country that can offer more to the West than any of its tiny western neighbors. Is Estonia capable of replacing Russia in providing military bases in Central Asia? Or in the Far East? How about some additional supplies of oil and gas? Let's look from a different angle. Can Estonia threaten the West in a similar way as Russia can do it? Has Estonia tens of thousands of nuclear weapons? Obviously not. This makes the western position alongside Estonia a matter of uncertainty. The West will prefer that Russia and Estonia stop the confrontation. But how it will react if they refuse to do it?

Looking at today's Russia as a second take of Weimar and post-Weimer Germany is at the same time simplistic and instructive. Russia seeking revenge may become the single most dangerous factor in the European and beyond European affairs. A policy of appeasement, however, will have the same chances of success as in the 1930s. Russian nationalism won't be satisfied if tomorrow the Baltic States stop harassing the Soviet-time memories or if the Russian minority in Ukraine is given more rights. Estonia has been part of Russia the same way as the 'Danzig corridor' was once part of Germany. Many people in Belarus have now the same warm feelings toward Russia as the Austrians had toward Germany before 1938. What's the different now, is, fist, that the West has some historic memories that work against the policy of appeasement; and second, that all small and harmless states between the Western Europe and Russia can count, under some conditions, on political and other protection from the West.

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