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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Ethiopia invaded what's internationally considered to be Somalia, a territory without centralized authority. Pretext for this invasion is defending Ethiopia against Islamic forces' encroaches across the border. With better military organization and western backing it won't take Addis Ababa too long to achieve its primary mission goal, defeating paramilitary groups along the border and imposing pro-Ethiopian sort of government in Mogadishu. Much more important question is whether this local war will turn into continental 'clash of civilizations', dwarfing ethnic animosities that make political weather in Africa since quite some time.

Africa is an ideal place for 'clash of civilizations' scenario. The continent is roughly divided into two equal parts, in north and along most of Indian Ocean coast predominant religion is Islam, in south and along most of Atlantic Ocean coast predominant religion is Christianity and animist beliefs. No other continent on earth has such religious dichotomy, other continents are either predominantly Christian or represent pockets of different beliefs, like Asia.

Despite this obvious precondition Africa so far didn't see major 'clash of civilizations'. Religion in most parts of Africa stays outside active politics. Major forces shaping political sentiments and mobilizations are ethnic links, state-sponsored nationalism, loyalty to particular central authority, and race to some extent. This relative religious neutrality may however be over soon. Populations along major religious divide line start defining their main character more and more in terms of religious metaphysics. This process didn't start yesterday, but we currently saw how it changed nature.

Ethiopia invaded what's internationally known as Somalia, a territory without centralized authority since early 1990s. This fact has several different and often conflicting significances. In terms of power politics Addis Ababa shows that it can still protect its borders. In terms of 'clash of civilizations' vocabulary Ethiopia shows that long-established border between politically dominating Islam and Christianity won't be changed without military showdown. In terms of militant Islamic ideology this is another attempt of 'non-believers' to impose their law on 'Land of Islam'. In terms of more global matters, this war may or may not be considered as an element of U.S.-led war in some parts of Middle East or even as an action to divert public attention away from Middle East.

Not surprising, this local and by no means big war risks becoming the drop that will overflow the bowl. African Union countries, still predominantly thinking in terms of power politics, support Ethiopia, although express some reserves and ask for time limitation of military operation. Arab League nations, shifting for decades from nationalist to religious rhetoric, demand immediate withdrawal of Ethiopian forces and restoration of status quo ante.

Even with military operation ending rather soon, it seems obvious that 'clash of civilizations' won't end soon in this part of Africa. No matter how elegantly Ethiopia withdraws its forces from Somalia, local Islamic groups will receive military and financial support from abroad to attack pro-Ethiopian government in Mogadishu. Ethiopia will be forced to intervene again, thus creating new enemies. Shaky religious balance in Ethiopia itself, where almost half of population is Muslim, may be threatened. A war that begins with the goal of protecting Ethiopia from foreign threat may end with split of the country along religious lines.

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