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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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After decades of stealing national resources and international aid, many influent circles in the Arab countries are now desperately trying to hide the ends under the water surface. The new US plans for the Middle East will shake the old order from top to bottom so many have already begun thinking about escaping with their capitals. Where to go? This is the main question that hunts oil tycoons and all sort of regional business clientele that enriched itself during the time of corrupt governments and easy money. The old Europe is already here to help and some countries feel the above the normal influx of Arab money.

If we take their words on trust, the new US plans for the Middle East won't just mean ousting Saddam from Iraq. It would also mean a broad democratization of all the Arab countries, giving the real power in the hands of those who live in the region, not just to the cliques that in most cases have terrorized for decades their own populations. The US point of view is that the lack of democracy in the region is the main source for the terrorist activities; so giving the power to the people would unleash the forces of progress and would open this region to the world, economically and culturally. Iraq in this respect will just be the first domino tile to fall.

Shaking the regional political systems from top to bottom would certainly mean a redistribution of the national wealth that for so long has been concentrated in the hands of circles linked to the present governments. The corruption won't disappear but at least its beneficiaries will be others. Those who have made fortunes could face trials as it was in some East European countries after the fall of communism.

This fact coupled with the underdevelopment of the financial markets in many Arab countries forces some of the main players to look outside, not just for place where to invest their billions, but also for a financial refuge in case of political shakeout. The main reason before deciding where to invest isn't only the high capital returns but also the political independence of the county toward the United States. In this case the old Europe with its developed financial and real estate markets and its strong stand toward Washington is the ideal place for refuge for many from the old Arab regimes.

Financial companies from Bahrain, Kuwait and other countries in the recent months have reportedly increased the amount of transfers towards the commercial real estate in the United Kingdom, Sweden and some other European countries. This is only the visible part of the iceberg. The invisible part is comprised of secret investments in the European real estate and in some major publicly traded companies coming from people with close links to the present Arab regimes. For example some time ago the British newspaper Daily Telegraph revealed how deep this process has gone by claiming that the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) has secretly invested up to $50 billion in the European real estate and on the continent's stock markets.

A year ago we observed the beginning of a process of transfer of some capital from the United States to Europe. Then the main reason was the national profiling of the presumed terrorists. Today, facing political changes of a large scale at home, many Middle East circles will follow suit. In this respect the opposition of some European countries to the war against Iraq is explicable. On the one hand, they fear about the future of their economic interests in the region. They fear that any new democratically elected government could erase the existing investment and trade concessions. On the other hand, the old Europe wants to demarcate itself from the United States and to attract the Arab capitals seeking political refuge.

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