Push for political independence in some ex-communist countries may create false impression that only in this part of Europe people strive for statehood. In West, after decades of terrorist violence, e.g. Britain, Spain, situation is much more under control now. Yet desire for breaking political 'chains' is still present in some regions. European Union by eroding multiethnic nation-states unwillingly contributes to this murky prediction.

Political map of Europe looks not quite the same as it was just 20 years ago. Gone are Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, and Czechoslovakia. Approximately 20 new states were created, some recreated, on the territories of these former federations. There are still some very small regions, e.g. Kosovo, Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, that are expected to break away thus creating new states. A first look at European map would suggest that these are things that can only happen in East. With EU enlargement the scope of process is limited to areas located outside its large area. Western Europe presents picture of peace and harmony, but this impression is false to a degree.

Few West European countries may break up shortly, e.g. Britain and Spain. Some other may see their regionalism significantly growing thus turning states into loose confederations, e.g. Belgium and Italy. Countries that seem more or less immune to this process are too small and highly homogenous like Denmark or Sweden or Portugal, or underwent process of homogenization more than a century ago like France or Germany. Recent waves of external immigration may have significant social and economic consequences, but they will hardly affect political status quo in any European country within next generation.

Britain and Spain stand apart from most West European nations. These are states built upon dynastic ties with no ethnic homogeneity. Furthermore, ethnic differences are accentuated with regionalization of political power. This regionalization initially was done in the name of appeasing ethnic separatism; nowadays it seems that general assessment of this process is rather the opposite, regionalization along ethnic lines exacerbates ethnic divisions. Both Britain and Spain lost their battle of cultural homogenization before turning to more regional autonomy. This means devolution of more power to ethnically defined regions is one-way road. It may be stopped or slowed down, but not reversed.

European Union plays the role of a 'villain' in this process. Brussels constantly takes new powers from national states. Furthermore, it provides some financial assistance directly to regions bypassing central state authority. In this way Brussels builds strong constituency among ethnic communities and makes them stronger vis-à-vis London and Madrid. Last but not least, European Union lowers cost of eventual secession, because any breaking away new state may remain within the Union. In the case of Spain, if a region breaks away, it will also remain within Euro and Schengen areas, defined by common currency and common external borders. To put it in comparative perspective, EU makes separation easier.

In a similar vein, EU will lead to more regionalization in countries like Italy and Belgium. These two countries also lost the battle against cultural regionalization so the process of turning into loose confederations is almost irreversible. Southern Italy unlike Basque country or Catalonia in Spain is much poorer compared to Italian average income, thus initial push for greater autonomy will hardly come from there. Belgium's two main regions are roughly equal in size and economic power, thus making any of them potential candidate for initiating peaceful devolution.

The only West European countries more or less immune to such trends are small and ethnically homogenous like Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Exceptions are two big countries France and Germany where ethnic and civic homogenization occurred and basically ended during the period of European national romanticism by mid-19th c. Considering that EU is mainly German and French project it's hardly surprising that they have made it in such a way that it doesn't endanger their proper existence as nation-states. Other EU members however must adapt to new realities or reform profoundly or perish.

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