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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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As a journalist working on the economic front I can swear that the most frequently used words these days by all Western economic gurus are "by second half of 2002". Thus, by the second half of 2002 we could expect the economy of the USA and EU to pick up its habitual rhythms of growth, say Mr. Greenspan and EU Commission representatives. Also by the second half of 2002 we can expect stabilization on the oil market, say oil producers and consumers alike. So it's completely familiar to hear that the world tourism in general and the tourist industry in Europe in particular are also expected to pick up by the second half of 2002.

The last statement is part of the preliminary industry results for 2001 and the outlook for 2002, released on 29th January by the World Tourism Organization (WTO). Such suggestions have no particular importance because they assume that everything will go as it is and the recovery will follow inevitably the crisis (it always did in the past sooner or later). Such forecasts don't take in account any sudden change in the future that can affect the tourist industry - more terrorist attacks, wars near the main tourist destinations, major airline bankruptcy (remember Sabena, Swissair), disease outbreaks (foot-and-mouth) etc. Any of these changes can modify the market or at least some regional segments of it, which will result in a less rosy picture.

According to these preliminary results for 2001 Europe has suffered both from the global economic downturn and the terrorist attacks. The number of international tourist arrivals decrease by 0.7 % (increase by 1.7 % in January-August and decrease by 6 % in September-December). In Americas the number of tourist arrivals dropped by 7 % (in North America by 8.2 %) and in the world in general the fall in 2001 was 1.3 %.

Three out of five top tourist destinations are European countries - France, Spain and Italy with a total market share of 24 % of the global tourist market. The average development on the European market hides the different trends in specific countries and regions of the continent. Some countries in Mediterranean region, Central and South-Eastern Europe gained additional market share. The growth was particularly strong in Bulgaria (14 %), Slovakia (13 %), Turkey and Croatia (12 %), Slovenia (11 %). On the other end, UK suffered big losses in 2001 (- 6.6 %), Italy (- 5 %).

Other major cause for problems in the European tourist industry was the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands, especially in the first 8 months of the year.

The list of reasons that can affect negatively the tourist industry in Europe in 2002 is very long. That's why the rosy prediction of WTO to see the light in the tunnel "by the second half of 2002" are only a speculation, the final result will depend on too many factors that develop independently beyond the reach of industry itself. It will be wiser to expect that for the European tourist industry 2002 will duplicate the 2001 and that the major changes will occur not on the continental but on the national level.

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