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Archived Articles  Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian descent, and former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with the hot political and economic topics, both Bulgarian and international. ("A Royal Solution." World Press Review. June 1997, provides English versions). He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1996-1997 participated in the international monitors' teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria. In 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. In 2002 Simeon and his family emigrated from Bulgaria to Canada where they now live in Montreal, Quebec.
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Europe will be built despite the French "No"French nation rejected the European constitution that was put on referendum. This is considered as serious defeat for the French president and the government, for the French political establishment, which is largely pro-European, as well as for the European Union, whose main "raison d'etre" is to prevent another major bloody war in the Old Continent. The good side of the story is that the European Union isn't dead. The French "No" may change the strategies aimed at further European integration. Bombastic words like "European constitution" may disappear altogether. The most likely outcome will be that Europe will be built despite the referendum and according to its original plans, involving the politicians as much as possible and the citizens as little as necessary.
France marginalized?France may have voted against the European constitution, but the ratification process is under way in 15 European countries, not counting those 9 that have already voted for the draft document. The constitution itself cannot be renegotiated, at least in theory. What seems possible, although unlikely, is for these countries that have approved the constitution to agree upon a new union treaty, thus leaving France marginalized outside new more integrated "Europe".It isn't hard to imagine that such new construction will be dominated largely by Germany. That is the first reason why this won't happen. Europe has been built since WWII as a common project where France to a degree balances Germany. Nothing and none can fill the gap that will result from the absence of either Germany or France. The other smaller states won't feel comfortable under common political roof with Germany without any conceivable counterforce.
Europe dismantled?Some of those who voted against the European constitution did it hoping to see the European Union dismantled and the national sovereignties restored. They want back their national currencies, their national financial and credit policies, their national states that they feel threatened by the omnipotent bureaucracy in Brussels. For them Europe means insecurity. The only real security is within the nation-state.
The main reason why this won't happen is that there is no political class to perform this dismantlement. The European political establishment, the main center-right and center-left parties with few exceptions are strongly interconnected. After half a century of European building they simply cannot imagine living on their own. For them it is "Europe or nothing". The day after their countries separate from the other Union states they will be gone politically and left and right demagogues will occupy their comfortable chairs. This won't be allowed, even by those who reject the European constitution. It's one thing to vote against Europe together with Jean-Mari Le Pen. It will be very different to vote for Le Pen as French president as the only clear anti-European candidate.
Full ahead in low profileThe European political class has no other real option than to continue its pan-continental project. It's unbelievable that the French citizens will be asked for a second time to approve the European constitution. Instead the politicians will choose to act by low-profile measures without bombastic words like "constitution". The emphasis will be put not on codified legal procedures but on convention-kind dealings. Europe will function and move ahead not because some clauses have been written down, but because the politicians have informally agreed upon over some bottles of fine French wine in one of the best Brussels' restaurants. Europe has been made by intergovernmental agreements for more than half a century and it will remain so. It may become for a time less manageable because of its eastward enlargement. The matters that would have taken months if the constitution has passed would be negotiated for years. So be it! The Union will lose a bit of its efficiency but it will remain afloat.
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