It has been a year since the European Union allowed 10 countries, 8 of them former communist states, to join the club. This expansion had a huge symbolic significance, showing the world that the EU isn't just a club of rich nations. Those that are expected to join in 2 years are even poorer than those that already joined one year ago. Expanding its soft power eastward, the EU has already turned the heads of many potential members, eroding their regional economic integration. The attractiveness of Europe on its close neighbors to the East and to the South is enormous. Many of these neighbors will join the Union if invited. The problem thus isn't whether they may join, but whether they will be invited to join?

2004 marked the largest ever enlargement of the EU. 10 new countries, 8 of them former communist, joined the elite economic club. For some of them this act was more of symbolic than of economic significance, showing the world their European pedigree. For others the reason was more economic, to catch faster with the Western quality of life. No matter what was the prime reason to join, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe so far feel happy to be part of the EU, although the magnitude of happiness among the population has decreased over the time. Their economies in average are doing remarkably well and the sudden jump of the prices due to EU accession seems to be only short-lived.

Unlike NATO where the main power that pushes ahead the expansion is the United States, and the process of enlargement can be seen as trying to diminish the significance of both Russia and Western Europe, the EU expansion is clearly run by the axis Paris-Berlin. The new countries are expected to bring new markets into the club and the countries that may benefit primarily from this are the countries of "Old Europe". This means that unlike NATO where the expansion is linked to the perception of Washington as to whether it can guarantee military security of the new members, the expansion of EU is linked to the perceptions of Paris and Berlin as to whether they can guarantee enough accession financial funds for the new members during their transitional periods. Running their budgets on red, both Germany and France are more and more reluctant to give more money without immediate results. There are already loud protests among the politicians in Germany as to the bill they have to pay for the countries that are to become next EU members shortly, Romania and Bulgaria.

Notwithstanding these difficulties, the EU has enormous attractive power on its close neighbors to the East and to the South. The remaining outside the EU Balkan countries has already applied to join the club; Ukraine is ready to file application; Turkey will start its accession talks in October; Morocco is considering following the Turkish example. Bringing Kiev into the EU will put an end to the economic integration within the CIS. The main problem is to find money to bankroll their accessions. The accession of Romania and Bulgaria will cost the EU 44 billion EURO during the first 6-7 years. The approximate accession of Turkey and Ukraine may cost the EU up to 100 billion EURO for each of them. The Western Balkans except Croatia present really bad economic situation making their integration a really costly process. In addition this region still hides security problems that may blow up without notice.

The future of the EU enlargement will be played in the years to come on the markets of the "Old Europe". If Germany and France succeed turning the corner and succeed putting their economies up to 21st century criteria, perhaps 5-10 years from now they may again decide to absorb new markets from the peripheries. If these reforms fail, as many predict because of the stagnant social structures, the next two-three countries to join may become the last in many years to come. The worst scenario will be to see the EU slowly disintegrating under its own weight and overstretch. If the EU peripheries continue to be perceived by Brussels more like liabilities than assets, the core countries may decide just to stop paying the bills. They officially cannot get rid of the peripheries, but like the former USSR in 1991, the peripheries cannot stop the core of beginning new life on its own.

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