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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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• France 2001
  
• France 2002
  
• France 2002, 2
  
• France 2003
  
• France 2004
  
• France 2004, 2
  
• France 2005
  
• France 2005, 2
  
• France 2005, 3
  
• France 2006
  
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• France 2006, 3
  
• France 2007
  
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• France 2007, 3
  
• France 2007, 4
  
• France 2008
  
• France 2008, 2
  

France is considered to be a democratic country. It even pretends to be the homeland of the human rights in the world, which may be the truth if consider the world to include only some sections of continental Western Europe. Well, in this country where democracy has very deep roots every major political change in the past between the left and the right went with some major economic earthquakes. When in 1958 general De Galles took power many French citizens preferred to place their deposits in Switzerland. When in 1981 Francois Mitterrand became a president many rich citizens did the same fearing the forced nationalization.

The current president Jacques Chirac, although ahead in the polls, can be replaced very soon by the socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin but it seems that nobody in the business circles cares too much about that. Politicians from the left or the right, they are now all the same, according to more than half of the French population. Listen to their statements and you'll find no big difference in their positions. They all promise to fight the street crime, to fight against the unemployment, to spend more on educational programs, to decrease the economic role of the government.

Given the fact that the real candidates are only two - Chirac and Jospin (current president and prime minister), nobody expects big changes in the economic, monetary and international policies they have carried on so far. The point in France now isn't what will be the policy but rather who will implement it.

So it's no surprise that the markets don't listen to the political debate and the investors continue their work as usual regarding only to the profits' warnings. Some of them maybe even don't know that there is a presidential campaign in the country. Well, they will see the final results appear in their papers within 2 weeks.

In the meantime the real estate markets continue their moderate but positive development. In the first quarter of 2002 the activity index has risen by 2.5% compared to the first quarter of 2001, according to the French National Federation of Real Estate agents. For this year the same source predicts more than 600.000 transactions. The prices have increased in the first quarter of 2002 by 1,6%, which is considered to be a success given the economic slowdown in the country and the negative effects of the terrorist attacks on 9/11. For this year the forecasts are that the prices in France will go up by 5% on national scale and up to 8% in Paris and in some attractive places on Cote d'Azur (South-East).

Endnote:

As shocking as it may appear, the fact that the extreme-right French politician Jean-Marie Le Pen will face the incumbent president Jacques Chirac for the runoff 2 weeks from now won't change our predictions that this elections are focusing on who will occupy the office and not what policy should be implemented. There will be no real choice for the French voters between the moderate Chirac and the extreme Le Pen and we can predict an easy victory for the incumbent president. As for the market reaction we don't expect any sudden moves in either direction.

As for the current Prime minister Lionel Jospin who finished on third position, he said that if these results are confirmed he will step down from the public political life immediately after the second round (May 5).

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