Two weeks ago, in the evening of Sarkozy's 'historic' victory, I expressed doubts about his ability 'of overcoming the inertia of the domestic system'. Only few days were necessary to see that the new president of France would be afraid of even trying to overcome this inertia. His priorities, announced publicly in advance of the parliament elections due this coming June, show that, at best, he has already decided to lose the first year of his term on secondary issues. At worst, he might have lost the unique chance to use his first days as president in order to produce enough momentum and bring France back from its stagnation.

France now lives in a period between the president and parliament election. In political terms this means that the time for large and unspecific slogans is over; the political leaders send more specific signals to the electorate as of their programs. Most polls predict that the political right, supporting the new president, will easily have a majority in the next Nation Assembly. That's why by far the most important signals are those sent by the new president and government to their large electorate. Good political manners require that the main agenda for reforms be clearly set up in advance. It's this agenda that actually strikes me with its political impotence.

What are these priorities that will animate the political life in France for the next year? First, there is a 'minimum service' in the public sector, especially in the transportation. In case of strike, the workers will provide minimum services to the public, something that in many countries may look as a common sense measure, but not in France, where strikes are particularly violent because of their comprehensiveness. The government offers the unions 3-4 months to make initial offer on this issue. If there is no progress, it will propose its own terms in September. What basically the government wants is that the unions renounce to use their enormous power to wreck any government decision by paralyzing the country. The likely outcome of this measure will be to see the unions paralyzing the country in order to keep this power.

Another measure the government is proposing on the agenda, is reforming the labor codes, the so-called 'one contract' policy. If you think that the government wants to increase the flexibility in the system of hiring and firing, you're wrong. On the contrary, the government will increase the inflexibility for those who may feel now that they are less protected by the system because of their young age or because of their lack of work experience. For almost 90 percent of all workers nothing will change; for the remaining 10 percent or so, they will be gradually treated as the remaining majority that attacks any idea of flexibility. The timing for moving ahead on this issue is the end of 2007. The likely outcome of this measure will be keeping all elements that produce stagnation and elimination of all elements that may eventually produce a positive breakthrough.

Third priority on the agenda is helping the universities be more autonomous in setting up their programs and hiring professors. The fact that some autonomy will be achieved is of course a noble goal. A piecemeal solution, however, won't make significant difference in French society. Universities in France have social functions alongside the purely educational functions. Keeping as many as possible students in the classrooms that otherwise will be counted as unemployed is as important, perhaps even more important, as making them learn particular disciplines. Without discharging the universities from this unnecessary burden, the government won't allow them to improve their academic performances.

These are, in general, the new priorities that will preoccupy the French public in the next year. In fact, as it seems, the top priority is losing this year on secondary issues. This may change, of course, but this golden opportunity of having young government acting decisively will be lost indefinitely. When Sarkozy is ready to push ahead with the real reforms, there may be no public support to sustain them.

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