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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Escalation in Caucasus between Russia and GeorgiaRussia and Georgia, both former Soviet republics, are in a midst of an economic and diplomatic 'war' in order to boost their governments' standing. Unlike many other similar 'wars' in post-Soviet time, tiny Georgia initiated this one. Moscow reacted or rather overreacted on many fronts, making sure to all observers that it didn't expect such a bold move coming from a small and basically harmless neighbor. Despite all calls in Moscow to give Georgians what they deserve, it seems Russia is losing another small battle in the global confrontation with the United States.
History of the conflictIn 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed. 15 constituent republics declared independence and were recognized internationally as new sovereign states. Among them Georgia in Caucasus representing a federation on its own, went through a difficult path of state building. Two territories still remain outside national government jurisdiction, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They both are under Russian military protection. We consider their annexation by Russia as something that will be accomplished in not so distant future.Having two parts of Georgia detached from its authority, and having military bases on its territory through all the period since 1991, it isn't surprising that anti-Russian feelings in Georgia are strong. Moscow kept these two territories in order to have more leverage against Georgia; at the end it made Georgia one of its strongest enemies among post-Soviet republics. Since 2003 openly pro-western political forces with dubious democratic credentials rule Georgia. They came to power after what seemed to be a popular revolution. Their main reason for existence is getting Russia out of Georgia, getting all Georgian territories under governmental control, and getting Georgia into NATO. Of these points number one and three seem under development; point two cannot be materialized given the heavily uneven balance of power between Russia and Georgia.
Recent conflictThe pretext for the recent conflict was a brief arrest in Georgia of several Russian citizens accused of spying. Moscow reacted or overreacted by imposing economic blockade on Georgia, and by beginning repressions and deportations on mass scale against ethnic Georgians living in Russia; a policy making us looking far back for precedents into Tsarist time anti-Jewish pogroms. This new blockade came at the top of other measures that made Georgian goods unwelcome in Russia. At the same time the Russian parliament, a body of yes-persons voting everything the Kremlin asks for, decided to withdraw all Russian military personnel from Georgia by the end of 2008.Georgia initiated the recent conflict. The timing wasn't chosen by accident. Just before municipal elections the government needed a boost of anti-Russian nationalism. It couldn't however predict the Russian overreaction. Moscow was clearly out of time when deciding on the best strategy to pursue. What it did was a mix of unnecessary show of force and hardly veiled capitulation before the Americans in yet another strategically vital region. All repressions against ethnic Georgians in Russia are in fact repressions against people who have economically opted for keeping good relations with their former 'bog brother'. If they send money to Georgia we can be absolutely sure part of them goes to social and political forces supporting good relations with Russia, which in the current context means being politically against the current Georgian government. To be sure the Georgian leadership needed not a real war with Russia, but only an escalation before the media. Moscow 'helped' it in this sense to win municipal election; in a similar way that the second 'limited' war in Chechnya helped Vladimir Putin winning the Russian presidency in early 2000. This time the same strategy was turned against him. All he could do was to punish his economic allies and make a decision for military bases withdrawal from Georgia, leaving it to the Americans as a possible bridgehead for possible strikes against Iran.
Georgia and NATOWithout a strong and timely aid coming from West, Georgia won't be able to overcome Russian economic and political pressures. It seems the Russian decision to withdraw from yet another former Soviet republic is a sign that another 'big brother' is about to come in. Europe doesn't fit well with this description; it will eventually postpone further enlargements until the time is appropriate. NATO is a different kind of organization. With military commitments going as far as Afghanistan many countries like Georgia may become potentially very interesting for the alliance. What Georgia must do now is to forget about lost territories and to look ahead.
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