|
Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
|
 |
Georgia: War in the time of the OlympicsFirst lessons from the brief war between Georgia and Russia can already be made. The power politics is doing well despite the enormous literature pointing to the contrary; weak states cannot challenge strong states in competition over territories, but only to balance them with other strong states in order to keep what they already have. The western policy of containment, introduced first after the World War II, is also doing well regarding Russia, despite the ideological change of guard in Kremlin. Some of the new border between the West and Russia in the Caucasus was drawn, and would probably stay there for decades pending the shift in the balance of force between them. The new phony Cold War will be a low-profile enterprise; outside the belligerent rhetoric nobody seems to want a big war, not for Caucasus. Georgia didn't think twice before attacking Russian-backed separatists in one of its northern regions, South Ossetia. We always suggested that given the huge discrepancy in the forces between Georgia and Russia, as long as Moscow supports these separatists, Tbilisi couldn't do anything to reintegrate them under its central rule. Moscow is standing firmly behind the separatists. When a country the size of Georgia attacks the forces of a country the size of Russia, the result is known before the first shot is fired. Georgia says it's backed by the international law. Under the same law, however, parts of countries can secede under some circumstances, think Kosovo. What Georgia can do now, is to balance against Russia and try to keep as much as possible from further Russian invasions. The western policy of containment, introduced first after the World War II, is doing well regarding Russia, despite the ideological change of guard in Kremlin. Moscow was as much surprised by the unanimous negative reaction from the West when it marched on Tbilisi as Tbilisi was surprised by the disproportionate Russian military reaction when it marched on Tshinvali, the administrative center of South Ossetia. The containment isn't military confrontation, but it's far more than diplomatic disagreement. In proper dose it can calm down both players without shifting the balance of power and without making the big war the only possible solution to stop the aggression. Russia was stopped short of its highest goals of destroying Georgia as an independent political state. There is a high price to be paid for this containment victory. Some of the new border between the West and Russia in the Caucasus was drawn, and would probably stay there for decades pending the shift in the balance of force between them. The bad news for Tbilisi is that it would have to give up to its plans of reintegrating the separatist provinces Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They will probably be given independence, perhaps as a transitory status toward ultimate Russian annexation. In exchange, Georgia will be given international stability within its new borders, and probably a membership in NATO. If this sounds like a bad deal for Tbilisi, let's consider the alternative. Georgia will be left alone against Russia, and the next time they face each other over the separatist republics, the West may have other priorities and look elsewhere when the Russian tanks are rolling over Georgian towns.
Country profile:
|
See also:
