With the earlier election in Germany already a history and the ruling command still discussing which way to bypass the iceberg that lies straight ahead, the future of the country seems gloomier than it was yesterday. Then there were still some hopes that the situation could gradually improve. Today the hope into the political class is gone and Titanic is going at full speed toward its fate.

For years we had focused on the economic deadlock that blocks the first economic power of Europe from regaining its former glory. The economic problems have cast huge shadow over the society as a whole. In fact anyone who has visited the country and talked to the people reports that they are not the same persons as there were only 5-6 years ago. The mood is different. After the bubble and the burst after the reunification and the bubble and the burst of some dot-com companies, people are more cautious than ever.

Two years ago the chancellor Schroeder asked from his fellow citizens "blood, sweat and tears" in order to go thought the difficult period in history and he didn't manage to get enough support. One year later he repeated his call and the result was still very disappointing. This year he decided to put everything on stake. He didn't win, but his opponents from the right-wing CSU didn't win either. The country would be less governable now after the election than it was before the parliament was dissolved.

Many ruling coalitions are possible but few are really likely to be formed. There could be no coalition without either the Social or the Christian democrats. There could be no working government of reforms without the Christian democrats that hold the key to the upper chamber of the parliament. There could be no small coalition either formed by the left or the right-wing parties alone, without including the small but significant new left party of former communists and social-democrat dissidents. Such coalition that will include the communists is unthinkable for the right and improbable within a left government, headed by Schroeder. In short, the mathematics supply much more fictitious combinations than the real political life can digest.

By the level of probability, the coalitions that may be formed after September 18 election are the following, from the most to the least likely:

• "Grand" coalition between the Social and the Christian Democrats. It's more likely that a Christian democrat will lead such a coalition, although the name of their current head Angela Merkel isn't the only option for the chancellor. Indeed it isn't even the most likely option for chancellor. To have Schroeder as chancellor, on the other hand, is even less probable. So a compromise name must be found. The problem is that such government will be notoriously inefficient and early election will be the most possible end of its mandate.
• "Street-lights" coalition, called for the party colors of the parties to be involved in the project, the Social democrats (reds), the Greens and the Liberals (yellow). The serious problem is that the Greens and the Liberals have completely different agendas in many areas. Even if they manage to reach some consensus on what to do, the upper chamber of parliament will most likely block them. Sooner or later the Liberals will pack and leave the government. Early election too looks like the most possible end of this government.
• "Large left coalition", that will include the former communists, but may exclude Schroeder. It may push Germany outside of the European political mainstream. This government will be stable as far as it will remain in office for full 4-year mandate. Germany may experience worsening of the economic situation and right-wing parties may largely dominate the next parliament that will be elected in 2009.

Germany country profile

• Area: 357,021 sq km
• Population: 82.4 million (July 2005 est.)
• Population growth rate: 0% (2005 est.)
• Net migration rate: 2.18 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2005 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 78.65 years
• Ethnic groups: German 91.5%, Turkish 2.4%, other 6.1% (made up largely of Serbo-Croatian, Italian, Russian, Greek, Polish, Spanish).
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $28,700 (2004 est.)
• Unemployment rate: 10.5% in 2003; 12.6% in March 2005; 11.6% in August 2005;
• Main trading partners: EU countries, USA.
• Internet users: 39 million (2003)

(Source: CIA - The World Factbook 2005)

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