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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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• Germany 2003
  
• Germany 2003, 2
  
• Germany 2004
  
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• Germany 2005, 2
  
• Germany 2007
  
• Germany 2008
  

The economy of Germany in 2002 experienced its worst performance since the early 90's. The gross domestic product rose by just 0.2% and the forecasts aren't rosier for the next 12 months. The retail sales in the country have dropped for the first time since 1997. Just 1 out of 8 companies in the country describe their situation as good. The bankruptcies and the unemployment are on the rise. The negative economic mood has had repercussions on the real estate market in many areas of the country. In the county's financial heart Frankfurt, for example, the market volume has contracted by 30% in 2002. The dream of making this city the first financial center of Europe remains for the time being just a dream.

There are dangers for Germany and for some other European countries, which depend on its markets, to fall into a deflationary spiral like that in Japan during the 90's. The situation could in the future be even worse compared to Japan because it's the European Central bank which has to consider many and often conflicting national interests before making decision, and it's up to this bank to determine the interest rates in the Eurozone, including Germany.

The proactive immigration policy could offset the bad demographic forecasts and the estimations for the real estate market development in the country in the years to come. The EU enlargement, including economically poorer but heavily populated countries like Turkey, could spark an increased demand for all kind of properties thus inflating the prices and the earnings. Until then the present-day level of profits of 4-5% are considered as too low for the investors, so they make real steps to diversify their portfolios.

In the last months the German investors, supported by the strong Euro, have slowly but surely increased their presence abroad, buying in large numbers office spaces in other European countries outside the EU and also in North America. This reorientation towards foreign markets has also been backed by a law from July 2002, allowing the German mutual funds to spend up to 10% more on projects outside the EU.

One of the reasons why Germans are going to America, other than the gloomy forecasts in Europe, is that the New World offers better investor opportunities. In Europe, the returns have fallen to 4-5%. Instead, in the United States the profits of 8-9%, coupled with the national economy growth forecasts of 3% for 2003 look really good amid the world troubles. Some experts even compare the German investors abroad now to the Japanese of 1980's.

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* - In the last year the Euro appreciated by 25% against the dollar.

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