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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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British captives in Iran are released. The move was surprising as was their capture in the first place. What was the diplomatic signal coming from Tehran? Did the West get it? And are we closer to a new big war in the Middle East, or not? Can the politicians still make rational decisions, or the events have already got out of control?

There is certain fatalism in the idea that all wars are preordained. At the end, it's people that push the buttons, give orders, and send troops, and declarations of war for that matter. War is always an option for many states in international relations, but rarely the first option, and almost never the only possible option. That's why we have diplomacy, people who are paid by the states in order to defend their interests without going to war. In the political context of the Middle East, the war has been higher on the agenda for most governments, just because the stakes there are traditionally higher, if in other regions the most salient issues deal with defending the national interests, in the Middle East nations most often face issues dealing with their survival.

In the region of the Persian Gulf and around it, for many decades, the main international relations concerns have been how to avoid big wars. When the wars happened from time to time, the states that were involved tried to limit their scope. Remember the Soviet behavior in Afghanistan, or the Iraq-Iran war, or the Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, or the American wars against Iraq. Everybody knows why this region is so vital, not only for the West, but for the entire world economy, so no need to repeat it. It's all about oil. Unlike many interpretations, however, the big oil doesn't make the world powers more belligerent; on the contrary, it makes them extremely cautious. Nobody likes seeing people playing with fire at a gas station.

Which partly explains why the Americans have been so cautious with Iran ever since the revolution in 1979. A besieged embassy full with diplomats, couple of small scaled clashes in the Gulf, a passenger plane crash, some belligerent rhetoric from one side or another, this are some of the critical moments in a generally speaking 'cold war' between Washington and Tehran. This moderation from both sides may end however as the stakes for both sides are rising, and rising fast.

The fateful decision of Iran to develop nuclear technologies, a decision made several years ago, its non-compromised stand against the existence of Israel, and the growing global perception of the U.S. as declining world hegemon, these are some of the factors that make a war between the United States and Iran more rather than less likely. In an idealistic world ruled by peace-loving people, a compromise between these two powers would be easy. One country will renounce its nuclear ambitions and military interference outside its borders, thus accepting the hegemony of the West; the other side will renounce its political interference in the domestic affairs in some regional powers, thus accepting their relative autonomy.

In the world we live in, however, the power is often tested in action, and those who blink first are considered to be the weaker. In this real world, there is only faint possibility for Iran to acknowledge publicly the U.S. hegemony, as did Libya three years ago. No way for Iran too to renounce its rejection of Israel. On the other side, it's almost unthinkable for America to accept Iranian 'autonomy'; this will set a precedent for countries much more powerful to claim similar if not larger exemptions; think about China, Russia, India or Brazil. For better or worse, we live in a world that 'shrinks' before our eyes. Showing weakness in only one part of the globe makes you appear weak everywhere else.

If Iran wanted to send a message to the West by ordering the capture of 15 British sailors, it was precisely this: 'stay away from me and I won't hurt you'. If the West wanted a war now, however, this would have been a perfect pretext; taking over military personnel from times immemorial was considered as 'casus belli', a formal cause for going to war. The Iranian move was sudden, as was the move to release the captives. Without obvious and equivalent exchange this release seemed like 'blinking'; as if Iran was too afraid of the consequences of its own acts. Whether or not the original message was 'stay away from me', the message that the western public opinion got was 'I'm too afraid of you; so don't push me to go to the extremes'.

This expression of fear, rather than force, is always making wars more rather than less likely. The next logical step of Iran will be to incite Iraqi Shi'i to rebel against the American troops, in order to divert their attention from attacking Iran. As a short-term strategy, it may work. As a long-term strategy, however, it may be suicidal. It will precipitate the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, but will unite many Arab governments to the American cause against 'Persian hegemony' in the Gulf. By inciting Iraqi Shi'i to revolt, Iran will eliminate the main reason why America still doesn't attack Iran, the fear of civil war in Iraq.

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