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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The events in Iraq seem to go in a direction opposed to that in the Washington's plans. American military suffers casualties, unacceptable for the American public. The situation on the ground is far from stabilized. The guerrilla attacks continue and the retaliations can only exacerbate the anti-American feelings among the Iraqi population. In this case the newly announced American policy of speedy power handover to Iraq civilian authorities and gradual withdrawal of the occupation forces seem reasonable. It's better to stop suffering casualties after the 400th dead than after the 40,000th. But will this bring closer the peace and democracy in Iraq? The perception of gradual American withdrawal may be perceived in the Middle East only as a symptom of American weakness and as a proof that Americans understand only the language of the brutal force (Osama bin Laden planning 9/11 was based on this assumption).

First let's look at the chances of Iraq to become a democratic country by itself, without direct international help of any kind. Let's simply assume that right now the American and other foreign troops suddenly disappear from the country and the Iraqis have to build a democratic state. In his book "Comparative Politics: A Global Introduction" (McGraw-Hill, 2001), Michael Sodaro list 10 preconditions that count when a country makes transition from some kind of authoritarian regime to democracy. These preconditions are:

1. There should be a functioning state that has sovereignty over defined territory and is viewed as legitimate by its population. This condition is not present now in Iraq, not only because it's under foreign military occupation, but also because there is no authority viewed as legitimate by the population.
2. The successful democratization depends on considerable degree of political and social elite's commitment to democratic values. This condition is also not present, given the fact that some Shi'a religious leaders prefer establishing theocratic state.
3. The national wealth also can promote democracy, but with very low GDP per capita and very high level of poverty (50%+), Iraq still can't use appropriately its huge oil resources in promoting democracy.
4. There should be significant share of private enterprises in the national economy, which also is disputable given the highly regulated by the state economy and disastrous effects on the country's private sector by the 13 years of UN economic sanctions.
5. There is no major middle class in Iraq that could promote democratization, given the high level of poverty and very low GDP per capita.
6. There is no explicit support by the disadvantaged classes for the democratic values and form of government. On the ground the foreign media observe widespread political apathy among the large social groups.
7. In Iraq there was no civil society or any democratic political culture due to the totalitarian political regime of Saddam.
8. Iraq is country with very low literacy levels (40% for the total population and 24% among the women) and the recent freedom of press can't fulfill its mission of promoting democracy without further educational improvements.
9. Iraqi society isn't homogeneous by ethnic and religious criteria.
10. The international environment plays at the best some mixed role. The major powers would like to see Iraq as democratic and peaceful nation. Some regional terrorist groups and perhaps some neighboring countries may opt for destabilization of Iraq in order to promote their own interests. Without foreign military presence this precondition for democratization will also gradually disappear.

But unfortunately it does matter and even the democratization of Iraq isn't an absolute guarantee that the next regime will be friendly toward the United States. Suppose there are free and fair national elections in a country where 60-65% of the population are Shi'a Muslims. Who will govern the country? Shi'a. What kind of democracy this will be? Perhaps some form of theocracy like in Iran, where Shi'a are also strong majority. What does America get if instead of one Iran she has to deal with two in a region that sits on a powder keg? Or consider another example, Afghanistan. When the archenemy USSR has been push out of the country, Washington felt the job done. But it wasn't. When you have a party, it's nice to care for cleaning up the mess. Otherwise you may be penalized. And the penalties in the world politics are severe.

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