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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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26 February 2004

Jordan: Modernization from above

© 2004, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

The ancient city of Petra is one of the main tourist attractions of Jordan.
The ancient city of Petra is one of the main tourist attractions of Jordan.

During most of the Saddam Hussein's rule in Iraq, he helped financially Jordan by selling it oil on lower prices. The main reason wasn't to help the kingdom itself, which from the beginning of its independence leaned toward the Western powers. It wasn't to please America that counted Jordan among its Middle East protégés. This Iraqi financial generosity was intended to help the Palestinian refugees, living in the kingdom. The Gulf War II put an end to this lucrative arrangement and dealt a blow on the Jordanian finances. The victim was a country that ironically was politically closer to the West than many other Arab states. With the new political realities in the Persian Gulf region what is the future for the Jordanian kingdom?

Surprisingly for the region itself and for the world in general, Jordan has no territorial disputes with its neighbors. Which doesn't mean that it hasn't problems with some of them or that it isn't influenced by their policy. The example with the Iraqi oil is indicative in this respect. The highly sensitive issue of the occupied Palestine territories by Israel produces direct repercussions on the kingdom, where the population is predominantly of Palestinian origin.

This fact is often cited as the single most important hurdle to the democratization of the Jordanian society. Giving power to the people in the case of Jordan will mean giving a state authority to the Palestinians. At first glance it seems that nobody really has an interest of such power transfer. The dynastic circle and its ethnic group will lose the privileges, associated with the power. Other Arab governments will feel threatened by this democratic virus. Israel may soon find another state among its enemies. The United States may fear that this will produce insecurity in this vital region. The Palestinians of the occupied territories may fear that Israel will consider Jordan as Palestinian state and refuse to withdraw from the West Bank.

Even if the major political factors in the region dislike the idea of democracy in Jordan, this doesn't mean the whole democratic project is doomed from the beginning. The new financial problems have to be dealt with and the most appropriated way of moderating the political opposition is to accommodate parts of it into the ruling fractions. The main problem comes from the fact that even a limited liberalization will be perceived as a first step toward full democratization and as such won't be welcomed by anyone except perhaps by the king Abdullah II, who tries to enlarge the base of his power.

Perhaps one of the reasons for this policy is caused by his origin, being a son of a British woman that converted to Islam before marrying the late king Hussein. According to the Jordanian constitution both parents of the king must be Arab and Muslim by birth. Such fact may seem unimportant for the outsiders but for a society based on tradition it's important element of the perception of the power as legitimate. Being perceived as illegitimate by some of his subjects, there are two possible solutions for the king: to concentrate the power in the hands of more restricted group in order to eliminate the dissidents; to enlarge his power base in order to diminish relatively the role of the dissidents. Given his western education, it isn't surprising that so far he chooses to follow the more liberal option. How far he will go won't depend only on his political skills.

Jordan country profile:
  • Area: 92,300 sq km
  • Arable land: 2.87%
  • Population: 5,460,265 (July 2003 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 77.88 years
  • Ethnic groups: Arab 98%
  • Religions: Sunni Muslim 92%, Christian 6%, other 2%
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $4,300 (2002 est.)
  • Labor force by occupation: services 82.5%, industry 12.5%, agriculture 5% (2001 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 30% (2001 est.)
  • Main trading partners: Iraq, Germany, US, India, Saudi Arabia.
  • Internet users: 212,000 (2002)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Jordan.

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