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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Kosovo: How big is the Pandora's boxKosovo declared unilaterally independence; unilateral means that the declaration isn't backed by Belgrade, the former internationally recognized state over the territory of Kosovo. Those opposing the move threaten with Pandora's box effect, i.e. that unilateral declarations of independence may go out of control. How big is the Pandora box? How large the process of political destabilization can get?
Former YugoslaviaThe Pandora's box effect is actually most threatening in some former Yugoslav republics. The Kosovo, itself, has small, but territorially concentrated Serb minority. This concentration is located at the border with Serbia proper. Using the Kosovo Albanians' arguments, that they and the Serbs cannot live within one country, can actually be used as an argument for demanding secession from Kosovo and reattachment to Serbia proper. The new state of Kosovo won't have enough resources to prevent such detachment; in fact, this question will be decided in Brussels.Other candidates for Pandora's box effect are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Macedonia. In the first two former Yugoslav republics there are strong Serbian minorities, approximately a third of the population, which under certain conditions could decide to demand for reattachment to Serbia proper; in the third republic, there is no less numerous Albanian minority that may take inspiration from Kosovo, which isn't very probable, but cannot be completely ruled out in the Balkans.
Former communist blocWhen the situation gets more interesting, is the possible Pandora's box effect on countries outside the former Yugoslavia. In the former Soviet Union, there are several candidates for independence with or without subsequent attachment to other republics. The Moldovian region of Transnistria, the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, would like to see themselves amidst the Russian federation. It's possible that Moscow would exchange its blessing for Kosovo against the Western acceptance for this 'minor' changes on the post-Soviet territory.Outside the former USSR, some possible repercussions of the Kosovo independence may occur in Romania, Slovakia, and possibly in Bulgaria. To be clear, I don't expect that these countries go through the same processes of disintegration as the former Yugoslavia. I, however, expect some movement toward more autonomy, consociational or territorial, giving some minorities (Hungarians in Romania and Slovakia, and Turks in Bulgaria) more political representation.
Outside worldThe smallest Pandora's box effect will occur outside the former Eastern bloc. There isn't big chances for independent and autonomist movements in Canada, Spain and Britain to use Kosovo as pretext for larger autonomy or for separation. If Kosovo is to be used as a lesson, it will be precisely the opposite; the unilateral declaration of independence is the last resort for any people; it's like nuclear weapon, there is no turning back after; all bets are off, the people declaring independence can get everything or lose everything; each event of this kind creates an international crisis; in times of crisis the reason is usually sleeping and the emotions run high. This is one of the general lessons from the Yugoslav breakup.
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