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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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15 July 2007

Ethanol: Where to find some land?

© 2007, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Looking for alternative sources for fueling our cars and not only cars, people turn toward new and unconventional solutions. The ethanol is one of them, the good old ethyl alcohol, produced by fermenting sugars with yeast. The cheapest ethanol as fuel comes from sugar cane and from corn. No matter the exact way of extracting it, the necessary prerequisite is to have land, lots of it. Sudden demand for land on a global scale crates certain inconveniences for investors. But is the land equally suitable for growing fuel on planetary scale? Where the investors should look first? And is the cheapest land the best option?

We came full circle in our economic perception of the land. In 17th and 18th c. the land was considered to be the main if not the only source of value. Having or not having land was the easiest way to determine whether certain people were rich or destitute. Up to the beginning of 20th c. millions of Europeans came to America looking not for jobs, but for free land, up to 150-200 acres, either in the United States or in Canada or in Argentina. The industrial revolution gradually changed this perception for the value of the land. It was relegated to secondary position compared to the industrial fixed capital or to the financial capital. Being a farmer in many rich countries meant being financially dependent on the government. In France, for example, up to three quarters of all farmers' incomes come from public funds. Everyday farms close their business in North America or Western Europe. It seemed this was an inevitable process, until the need of alternative fuel came with force.

We're hungry for new energy, and the land is one possible way of producing renewable sources of energy, the other alternatives being the sun, the winds, the water, the hydrogen, and depending on whom you ask, the nuclear reaction. Brazil is among the few countries where most cars move thanks to fuel alternatives based on ethanol and on bio-fuel. So the main question isn't whether this is technically possible, but rather where to find as much land as necessary for fueling even bigger economies, e.g. the American or the European. Brazil is unfortunately unable to provide the entire world with alternative fuels. Its economy, and therefore its hunger for more energy, also grows. One of the purposes of producing ethanol is precisely to eliminate foreign dependency on oil. It really won't work well if one type of foreign dependency is only replaced by another type, no matter how benign this dependency may be, it will always create political dependency.

For the United States the problem seems partly solved by its comparatively huge fertile but underused land. Canada provides some additional options for good and underused land. In addition, Canada because of its small economic size and military dependence upon the United States will never be able to put the latter into a position of political dependency. The problem of finding land is however acute in Western Europe, where antinuclear movements make some alternatives politically unbearable. In this regard, the EU decision to include Eastern Europe, a region where the land is relatively abundant may turn to be a brilliant step in the right direction.

Of course, the available land is not confined to the regions surrounding the main markets where the energy is in high demand. Russia, Ukraine, some African countries, and some Latin America countries can also be considered as interesting for potential investors. The problems with these countries are basically two. First, the distance from main markets may make the ethanol intolerably expensive. This problem is self-explanatory and thus doesn't need further clarification. Second, many of these countries don't offer good property regimes for foreign investors. Let's face it, in many countries properties can be expropriated or confiscated without legal procedures. In order to protect their assets, investors must pay bribes or hire organized crime groups. This is certainly not an ideal environment for investment, even less for long-term investment. Which leaves as potentially attractive only the land that is near the main energy-thirsty markets and that falls into legal regimes that protect the investors. It may be the most expensive agricultural land we have on the global market now, but in the end it may turn out to be the cheapest option most investors have.

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