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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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One year after the spectacular killing of the former Lebanese PM Rafik Hariri and the subsequent Syrian military withdrawal from Lebanon, this country is a focal point of interests for many great powers. Either as a supposed model for multi-religious tolerance spread to the rest of the Arab world, or as a Syrian proxy in the terrorism against Israel, or as an American proxy for exercising influence over the Sunnis in Iraq, Lebanon is an important regional factor despite its chronic economic problems and relative poverty. Because of its semi-opened political system and variety of political interests, this country can be used as a litmus test for measuring the relation of forces in the vast Middle East region.

Since our last visit three years ago Lebanon has witnessed many turbulent events. The former PM Hariri was killed in a spectacular bomb explosion, so powerful that Hariri could have been killed even if he was a block away from the epicenter. All eyes turned to Syria, which was soon after almost forced by a coordinated policy of the U.S. and France to withdraw its official military personnel from the country. Unofficially Syria is still there, its intelligence is still operative, and terrorist groups are still crossing undisturbed from Syria through Lebanon on their way to Israel. For Syria Lebanon is the trading coin for obtaining the Golan Heights from Israel and for obtaining financial aid from countries trying to destabilize Israel like Iran.

Lebanon however is important for at least two western powers, the U.S. and France. They almost succeeded in sweetening their bitter relations after the war in Iraq by coordinating their efforts to push Syria officially out of the country in 2005. Their incapability to do more for now is due to their lack of coordination as to what should be their next moves. France wants to empower its political protégés, mostly among some Christian parties, regardless of what may cause this change in the balance of power in the country. The U.S. has more complex plan. Unilateral empowerment of the Lebanon Christian minority may lead to consolidation of the Muslim majority around pro-Syrian and anti-Israeli position. On the other hand, the Sunni community in Lebanon may be used by Washington to gain influence in Iraq among the Sunni community there. If Washington plays well the role of protector of the Sunni community in Lebanon, it may secure Israel, isolate Syria and improve its stand in Iraq. If Washington pushes too far in this direction however, this may undermine its influence among the Iraqi Shi'a community.

Lebanon is an interesting country because of its multi-religious background coupled with its semi-opened political system. Unlike many secretive Arab polities, where the results aren't seen until they become fait accompli, in Lebanon the political process is transparent and it needs just a little attention in order to be seen how the relation of forces is constantly changing and how coalitions are formed or broken. Right now the anti-Syrian block looks as if it has some larger support among the population. Any unexpected event in the larger Middle East however may change very fast this temporary relation of forces. Some political caricatures in a faraway country, for example.

Lebanon country profile:

• Area: 10,400 sq km
• Population: 3.8 million (July 2005 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 72.63 years
• Total fertility rate: 1.92 children born/woman (2005 est.)
• Ethnic groups: Arab 95%, Armenian 4%, other 1%
• Religions: Muslim 60% (including Shi'a, Sunni, Druze, Isma'ilite, Alawite or Nusayri), Christian 39% (including Orthodox Christian, Catholic, Protestant)
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $5,100 (2005 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 28% (1999 est.)
• Main trading partners: EU countries, Syria, UAE, Switzerland, Turkey.
• Internet users: 600,000 (2005)

(Source: CIA The World Factbook 2006, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Lebanon.