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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Small wars, big warsLooking at the recent Israeli incursion in Lebanon a legitimate question is will this small war between Israel and Hezbollah become next big war in the region, involving on the one hand the Hezbollah's supporters Syria and Iran, and on the other hand, the United States? Is it possible to stop the hellish mechanism of escalation? What are the main goals of each of the principle actors? We shouldn't forget that both world wars started from seemingly small causes, insignificantly smaller than the destruction they caused, the first began in 1914 after tensions between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, the second in 1939 after a limited conflict between Germany and Poland.
IsraelIsrael's goal seems clear enough to be identified as crashing Hezbollah forces in Lebanon once and for all. During first days of escalation Israeli forces tried to destroy vital infrastructure that Hezbollah could use in order to supply its positions with ammunitions and new recruits. Once this preliminary goal is achieved, Israel will attack Lebanon with bigger forces. Unclear element in this strategy is how many casualties Israel is ready to digest among its own ranks. Crashing Hezbollah may cost Israel thousands of soldiers. Operation in Lebanon may take months and more to accomplish. Outside forces may intervene and confront Israel. The Untied States for whatever reason may suddenly ask Israel to withdraw from Lebanon while Hezbollah is still alive.
HezbollahSouthern Lebanon is state within state. Hezbollah for years has in fact ruled over this tiny piece of land, supported financially and militarily by Syria and Iran. This position is strategic. In fact, this is the only territory where a hostile to Israel group can get without major problem, assemble and fire short-range rockets against the Jewish state. So Hezbollah will stand and fight, because it's paid by Syria and Iran to be there. Its goal is to make Israel pay dearly for this war. Any outcome other than complete annihilation of Hezbollah within short time and with limited Israeli casualties may be considered as Hezbollah's victory. As far as Syria and Iran provide military assistance Hezbollah may keep positions for a while. If betrayed by Syria, Hezbollah would collapse within weeks, but its troops would cross the Syrian border and threaten the regime in place with destabilization. Nobody wants such scenario, even Israel and the United States.
SyriaSyria's goal is a return to the status quo ante, i.e. low intensity conflict across the border between Israel and Hezbollah. In this situation Syria may use its terrorist proxies in the region without exposing itself to large Israel counterattacks. Syria should opt against the escalation of the conflict. Such escalation will bring in the region Iran and possibly the United States, thus squeezing Syria and making it forced to side openly with one of them. Syria doesn't want direct confrontation with Israel, but at some point this may mean abandoning Hezbollah, the last true and strong ally in Lebanon, and the main reason why Syria gets billions from some richer countries. Another reason Syria won't abandon Hezbollah easily is that its troops won't have other choice than fleeing to Damascus, thus destabilizing the regime in place. These contradictions make the Syrian position unclear.
IranUnlike Syria Iran wants some escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran also has interests in seeing Israel attacking Syria. If this happens, Iran will become directly involved in the conflict, which will bring several expected benefits to Tehran. First, it will make Syria heavily dependent upon Iranian position. Second, it will radicalize the Shi'ites in Iraq against the U.S.-led coalition, increasing the Iranian leverage upon Washington. Iran will increase its value among the Muslim states as the main anti-Israel force in the region. The international controversy over the Iranian nuclear program will fade away.
United StatesWashington will support Israel as far as crashing Hezbollah is the only goal of the incursion into Lebanon. The U.S. doesn't want escalation beyond this point. It isn't in the American interests to destroy Lebanon, nor to destabilize Syrian regime, nor to give additional regional power to Iran, nor to destabilize again the situation in Iraq. To achieve all these goals, America should convince somehow Syria that it would get back its lost influence over Lebanon in exchange of abandoning Hezbollah and other terrorist proxies in the region. This won't be an easy task, because Hezbollah is the Syrian vanguard in this country. Another obstacle may unexpectedly come from France, which will prefer to keep its position in Central Lebanon instead of sharing it again with Damascus.To sum up, currently Syria wants no war at all; Israel and the United States want the war to be as limited as possible to Southern Lebanon; Hezbollah and Iran want escalation beyond this area.
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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Lebanon.
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