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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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12 April 2007

Libya: Transition, transition, transition?

© 2007, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

In a country of many paradoxes, where officially there is no government, but many work for the government, it isn't easy grasping with the reality. Yet three major trends are inevitably appearing to dominate the Libyan social landscape for the years to come. First, there is the question of leadership transition after Muammar Qaddafi. Second, there is a question of economic transition after decades of artificial models. Third, there may be a question of civilizational transition for a nation that barely knows what the life looks like on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea.

By any political measure, Qaddafi is still not an old politician. For his 65 years, unless his doctors tell him otherwise, he has still years to live and rule over his people, or, to use the official propaganda jargon, to rule with the people. The sheer number of years, however, may be misleading. Unlike elected politicians, who just step down, write memoirs, build libraries and give public speeches to children and grown-ups, dictators always leave a vacuum of power. They are very concerned about the legacy they will leave; in fact, the way they will be remembered will determine how their families will be treated afterwards. Libya, despite its current economic growth, is in such a political shape, that any disappearance of Qaddafi will lead to a bloody civil war. A country where officially there are no institutions of any kind, nobody can claim legitimate power, which means that nobody can rule without first eliminating many other potential pretenders. A transition that will establish political institutions that will guarantee physical and political survival of Qaddafi's family and fiends is therefore necessary.

Another transition, related but not too closely to the first, is the question of economic reforms. To be honest with that, Libya doesn't need reforms in order to attract foreign investors. Libya has enough money right now, in fact, much more than it can use. Its wealth comes from exporting energy, the energy is selling well nowadays, and it will sell well for years ahead; therefore Libya needs not to worry about sudden drop in demand. In a society without official institutions, this extra wealth coming from abroad is finally concentrated and redistributed from the very top using different criteria for entitlement. In a society where institutions will matter, where property will be protected by laws, in such a society establishing clear rules of who gets what and how are indeed very important. Not because otherwise ordinary people may be abandoned to their fate, but because the unordinary people cannot make legitimate claims on disproportionately big parts of the wealth.

Last, but arguably the most important transition that awaits Libya, has civilizational dimensions. The country after Qaddafi may eventually ends up being ruled by laws, and may become eventually a country where private property is protected. Russia is a good example for a country that wants to go in the same direction. And yet, it remains outside of what we call the West, away from norms such as human rights and responsible government. When the first and second transitions are over, the question will inevitably be raised: will Libya emulate other authoritarian Muslim countries or will move closer to Europe, located on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea. Following the 'cultural' reading of civilizations and their inevitable 'clashes', the answer to this dilemma seems obvious. North Africa, however, despite all appearances, like Turkey, is a bridge-region between Europe and the Islam world. Brussels shouldn't leave these countries without any hope for privileged civilization links with Europe.

Libya country profile:
  • Area: 1,759,540 sq km (more than 90% desert or semi-desert)
  • Population: 5.9 million (including 166,000 guest-workers)
  • Population growth rate: 2.3% (2006 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 76.7 years
  • Total fertility rate: 3.28 children born/woman (2005 est.)
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $12,700 (2006 est.)
  • Main trading partners: EU countries, Turkey, China, the U.S.
  • Internet users: 205,000 (2005)
(CIA The World Factbook 2007, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Libya.

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