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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Surrounded by stronger but not by too much stronger countries, divided along ethnic and religious lines, the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia is still trying to define itself in terms of western affiliation and regional balance of power. Losing, or rather squandering, precise years on secondary but highly symbolic issues, Macedonia now isn't capable of competing with most other Central and East European nations. Its future depends on foreign factors, such as whether it will be invited to join NATO in April 2008, whether the EU will invite it to begin accession negotiations in 2008, whether Greece will lift its diplomatic pressure, and whether there will be no more bloody wars among the countries that once constituted Yugoslavia. Too little actually depends now from what the Macedonian government does. The investors, these fearful species, are looking in other directions when they decide to invest or not in Macedonia.

The most recent history of Macedonia is a story of how some foreign factors, related or unrelated between each other, determine its fate. This doesn't mean that its fate was predetermined in any meaningful way from the early 1990s. It means that the local government(s) made the country's own future dependable upon a combination of foreign factors. To begin with, it proclaimed the principle of 'equidistance' from all neighboring nations, Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, and Albania. It did make some sense of doing this assuming that the Cold War, and its Balkan mini-version will last for a while, therefore making Macedonia the shortest cut between the regional interests. The Cold War, however, didn't last forever, and three of these four neighbors are either part of the West, or move closer to it, thus making redundant the role of Macedonia as a regional power broker.

What to say about the almost open political support to Serbia during the wars in Yugoslavia up until the end of the 1990s? The argument that Macedonia feared Serbian invasion didn't meet the standard of proof; Macedonia was and is still protected by American troops since the early 1990s. Or, what to say about the unnecessary dispute with Greece regarding the international name of the new republic? There are plenty of nations that use one state name for themselves, and other for the world, and nobody finds this strange. Think about Zhongguo and China, Bharat and India, Deutschland and Germany, Magyarorszag and Hungary, Sverige and Sweden, Norge and Norway, Suomi and Finland, the list may be far too long. What to say about Switzerland that has not one, but three local names, all of them constitutional: Schweiz, Suisse, and Svizzera. So, the name dispute with Greece was unnecessary, and highly detrimental for Macedonia.

To sum-up, Macedonia today depends heavily on what's going on outside its borders. Because of its self-imposed 'equidistance', meaning cold international relations based on the lowest possible denominator with its neighbors, its future as a unified country and the invitations to join NATO and the EU are far from assured. On the other hand, any possible disruption in the region (think about the resolution of the Kosovo status) can be highly detrimental.

Macedonia profile:

• Country name:
  • provisional designation used by the UN, EU, and NATO: 'Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia' or FYROM;
  • short form: Macedonia;
• Area: 25,333 sq.km.
• Population: 2,050 million (July 2007 est.).
• Ethnic groups: Macedonian 64,2%, Albanians 25.2% (2002 census).
• Religious groups: Macedonian Orthodox 64.7%, Muslim 33.3%.
• Life expectancy at birth: 73.97 years.
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity 8,300 (2006 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 30% (2005 est.).
• Internet users: 400,000 (2007 est.)

(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2007; Reuters)

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