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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian descent, and former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with the hot political and economic topics, both Bulgarian and international. ("A Royal Solution." World Press Review. June 1997, provides English versions).

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1996-1997 participated in the international monitors' teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria. In 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. In 2002 Simeon and his family emigrated from Bulgaria to Canada where they now live in Montreal, Quebec.

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20 August 2005

Mongolia: No way in without Russia or Beijing

© 2005, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Mongolia is a new star that has loomed bright recently on the investors' screens. Starting from very low economic levels, it has already attracted the attention of some big western extracting companies, ready to pour money in its raw materials. Some have even speculated about a possible inclusion of this country in the new U.S.-sponsored security ring that will surround China and make it behave less aggressively in its foreign policy. If economically speaking the country can offer something to its western friends, in the political field it should be clear that the rules are set by its giant neighbors: China and Russia, alone or in accord. There couldn't be even theoretical possibility for Mongolia to play independent role supported by the West against both of them.

Political aspects

Mongolia and the Mongols were part of the greatest landmass empire, created in early 13th century that took under control half of continental Europe and almost all of Asia, including today's Russia, China and parts of India. Until the middle of 17th century the remains of this empire still constituted a large political formation between the growing Russian Empire from the West and the expanding Chinese state from the East.

The land of today's Mongolia was conquered by China by the end of 17th century and kept under control until 1911. After it was the turn of the Russians to take control over this vast and scarcely populated land. After the WWI Mongolia was officially an independent state, but in fact it was a Soviet protectorate. The USSR fought over Mongolia against Japan in late 1930s. If necessary, Moscow was ready to fight over Mongolia against China in late 1960s.

The Soviet protection and economic sponsorship disappeared overnight in early 1990s when the USSR collapsed. At that time China was struggling to manage a peaceful change of guards between the different generations in Politburo so it was unable to replace the Soviets as a regional sponsor. In addition the Mongolian leadership was trained in Moscow and couldn't painlessly welcome the idea of going under a Chinese tutelage after so many decades of political confrontation with Beijing.

During the last 15 years although many things have changed in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar and the Cold War animosities have given up space for a new spirit of international cooperation. Moscow continues to be the main supplier to Mongolia of oil, thus making the country very dependent on its foreign political orientation. On the other hand, China has stepped in as a main market for the Mongolian raw materials. Mongolia is so small it couldn't even play a balancer between Moscow and Beijing. Given the political past of this land, its present-time independence is only a result of the fact that these two giants haven't decided who should take full control over it. So they have decided to exercise jointly critical mass of influence over the vast region of Central Asia, including Mongolia.

Investment aspects

Mongolia is a poor country when it comes to the standard of living of the general population. The country although is very rich when it comes to some raw materials, e.g. gold, copper, and coal. The market in China seems limitless and it's expanding fast. On the other hand, these fast expanding extracting industries need other products to keep going that may be imported conveniently from Russia. Third, in many areas related to raw materials' extractions the western technologies are considered to be just second to none. Even if the Russian and Chinese companies can provide the same level of efficiency, they can't even come closer when it comes to the western ecological standards. That's why the western companies may finally have many opportunities to operate in Mongolia. That's why some western specialists will need housing that is already offered by some local companies.

Completely different is the political aspect of these western investments. Unlike many other countries in the world, this technological dependence won't make Mongolia politically directly dependent upon any big western country, even the United States. The western companies will just be small although important pieces of the long chain that will link the Russian energy sources to the Chinese manufacturing. The West may decide to help either Moscow or Beijing to rule over Mongolia and thus increase its own influence in this country. What the West can't do is to try to bypass both of its giant neighbors. Then the result will most likely be their joint control over this landlocked country. Until one of them becomes so strong and makes Mongolia its economic colony.

Mongolia country profile:
  • Area: 1,564,116 sq km (the country is landlocked).
  • Arable land: less than 1%.
  • Population: 2,791,272 (July 2005 est.).
  • Population growth rate: 1.45% (2005 est.).
  • Life expectancy at birth: 64.52 years.
  • Religions: Buddhist Lamaist 50%, none 40%.
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $1,900 (2004 est.).
  • Population below poverty line: 36.1% (2004 est.).
  • Labor force by occupation: herding/agriculture 42%, mining 4%, manufacturing 6%, trade 14%, services 29%, public sector 5%, other 3.7% (2003).
  • Main trade partners: China, Russia, U.S.
  • Internet users: 220,000 (2004).

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Mongolia.

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