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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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As we have predicted for quite some time, Montenegro has finally regained its sovereignty lost at the end of World War I. Hoping that this will be the last state breakup in the post-communist world may however be just wishful thinking. Other unrecognized territorial entities are waiting for UN membership or to join their 'mother' nations. They may use the Montenegro's road to independence and ask to be treated similarly by the international community.

Just to remind us the main facts that led to the creation of the newest state in Europe. Montenegro was an independent polity since late 18th c. after bitter wars with the Ottoman Empire. It's recognized as an independent state in 1878. It enters the World War I as an ally to the Franco-British-Russian Entente, and it's for a brief period occupied by Austro-Hungarian troops. At the end of the war it's liberated by the Serbian army, which forces the local parliament to proclaim its merger with Serbia and therefore with the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, later known as Yugoslavia. After the World War II it's proclaimed to be a republic within Yugoslavia. After 1991 it allies closely with Serbia during the initial period of Yugoslavian disintegration. Since late 1990s Montenegro gradually distanced itself from Belgrade. Later on it accepted a loose confederation with Serbia conditioned upon holding a referendum on independence within 3 years. The referendum was held in May 2006 and independent forces won by 55.5%

There is another interesting fact. The European Union, the chief sponsor of the loose confederation between Serbia and Montenegro that lasted for 3 years, insisted that the referendum for independence would be valid only if two conditions are met. First, the turnout should be more than 50% of all eligible voters. Second, the 'Yes' votes should be at least 55% of all votes. The EU didn't like the idea to have another state in the Balkans, and for good reasons. By imposing such enforced conditions it actually wanted Montenegro to remain part of the federation with Serbia. As it turns out however, by imposing such conditions, the EU may be held responsible for more state breakups in Europe, all of which will claim to be following the same rules tailored by Brussels in the case of Montenegro.

Who may be the next in this line of independence? As far as the Balkans are concerned, this may be, first of all, Kosovo, an autonomous region of Serbia predominantly populated by Albanians. Second, the Serbian territories in Bosnia and Herzegovina, known as Republika Srpska, might decide to join Serbia proper. It won't be technically possible if a referendum is to be held in Bosnia as a whole, but the project will have many chances of success if the Serbian part of this confederation votes separately (as did Montenegro). If all goes well and Macedonia is divided along ethnic lines, following the EU advises, this scenario may work for this republic as well, taking away its predominantly Albanian territories. All will claim, no more no less, just to follow the rules established by the EU for Montenegro. Some of these separations may be deterred, at least for now, because parts of Balkans are strictly speaking EU and NATO protectorates.

The former Soviet Union however, outside the Baltic States, isn't EU and even less NATO protectorate. Russia may use the Montenegro example to claim independence for its protégés, and the EU won't be able to block it without losing face. The first line of independence with following-up reunifications with Russia may include the Transnistria region (Moldova), as well as Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgia). Nagorno-Karabakh region (Azerbaijan) may decide to join officially Armenia. The second line of independence, if the first group succeeds without major obstructions, may include some ethnic Russian regions is neighboring countries, e.g. Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The years to come will prove right or wrong this worst-case scenario. It's however almost certain that Montenegro won't be the last state to emerge on the post-communist map.

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