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Archived Articles  Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian descent, and former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with the hot political and economic topics, both Bulgarian and international. ("A Royal Solution." World Press Review. June 1997, provides English versions). He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in the country, and in 1996-1997 participated in the international monitors' teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria. In 1999 he was among the few Bulgarian journalists that supported NATO military operation against Yugoslavia. In 2002 Simeon and his family emigrated from Bulgaria to Canada where they now live in Montreal, Quebec.
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NATO: Who will join in 2008?Two years ago NATO made its 'big bang' enlargement passing from 19 to 26 members. The next wave of enlargement then wasn't expected to happen for many years. New signals coming from the Alliance now suggest that this may in fact be reality by 2008. Who will be the new members may be revealed as early as this autumn, but several suggestions already point at different directions. Can the Western military union move in all these directions at the same time? There are three possible directions for the future NATO enlargement. They don't contradict each other, i.e. they can be made simultaneously. The question is, given the problems associated with each of them, is NATO capable of moving in all directions at the same time.
Western BalkansThe first direction is to absorb the more stable republics from the Western Balkans: Croatia, Macedonia and Albania. Croatia is the easiest candidate in terms of external and internal security. The problems here may come from some past events that aren't completely overcome like wartime crimes, and national minorities' right. The other two countries have somehow different problems. Their state capacity may be below or far below the level needed for a country to assume the responsibilities of NATO membership. Macedonia has also some unsolved problems regarding its status as a multinational country. The good news for all West Balkan countries regarding their bids is that no great power will object their NATO membership. So by this autumn we may expect NATO sending invitation letters to at least one if not more of these countries.
Ukraine and GeorgiaThese two former Soviet republics would like to become NATO members too. Their problems are significantly bigger than the problems with the West Balkans. Their state capacity varies from below the average (Ukraine) to far below the average (Georgia). They both have either serious problems or potential for problems with their ethnic minorities. In the case of Georgia parts of the country are effectively outside centralized administrative control. Two of these parts want to be annexed by Russia. On top of this, Russia may object strongly against NATO enlargement to these former USSR territories. If it could, it would propose NATO taking the Western Balkans and forgetting about its 'immediate neighbors'. My expectations are that NATO this autumn will increase its cooperation with these countries without sending to them open invitations for joining the club.
IsraelThe news that Israel may become NATO member is usually rejected as either hypothetical at best or nonsense at worst. Israel has all problems that a NATO would-be aspirant shouldn't have in order to qualify for membership. It has minority problems, territorial problems; it's in a state of war with some of its neighbors, it's threatened with physical annihilation from at least one country looking to develop nuclear power. If this were any other country from Central or Eastern Europe, NATO would suggest its bid to be delayed until all these problems are solved. In the case with Israel the situation is very different. At some point the NATO membership may become the only reason why Israel will feel secure. To look at this from another perspective, its membership may be the only reason why Middle East Muslim nuclear and other WMD powers won't consider attacking Israel by fear of automatic Western retaliation. The problem with this membership is that many Western countries, especially in Europe, aren't really prepared to face a nuclear war over Israel.
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