Will there be a nuclear war in and around the Korean peninsula? According to the official threats that come from Pyongyang there may be if the "imperialists", i.e. the Americans, decide not to be blackmailed again and stop providing their annual portion of humanitarian aid. Coming closer and closer to nuclear power status North Korea understands what bargaining power this may bring. Some secondary facts show that Kim Jong-il will hardly risk a big war in which he will lose. Waging big wars and risking personal power isn't his main scenario. Making others believe he does is part of it.

Kim Jong-il seems like an absolute master in North Korea. In fact he knows how fragile his power is. His personality doesn't have the charisma of his late father Kim Il-sung. Kim, the Father, waged a big war against the U.S., helped of course by the USSR and China, and at the end succeeded in staying in power. For the politicians in democratic countries this may not look like really big stuff, but for the dictators in any Third World country this is tantamount to heroism. In some sense they are right, just look how few are those who have tried it successfully. That the final result of the war was more due to the Chinese (500,000 volunteers) and the Soviets (more than 2,000 aircraft) doesn't change the perception of Kim Il-sung as a national hero in the eyes of his countrymen. Kim, the Son, lacks such charisma. If he wants to create a similar perception, one of the options is to wage a similar war against the South. Without the support of the Russians and the Chinese he'll lose his power after a military defeat or a military coup. Kim's other option is to blackmail the Americans and to extract as many economic (and why not security) concessions as possible without waging a war.

The essential part of the second option is to make the others believe that he actually may choose to go to war without having in mind such option for purely practical reasons, or what's called brinkmanship. Saddam Hussein was in a similar situation in 1990 before invading Kuwait. He was convinced that the economic situation of Iraq was untenable and that the U.S. was the main reason for this. The difference between Saddam of 1990 and Kim Jong-il is that Saddam had space to invade in order to bargain against economic aid. N. Korea can't move even an inch without sparking a big war and that's why its bargaining chip isn't a matter of invasion but the threat of nuclear strike or nuclear proliferation. These chips are useful as long as they aren't used.

Claiming to possess nuclear devises, North Korea acts as a chess player waiting for the other side to make some error. In fact the best step for the U.S. will be to do nothing that goes outside its previous politics in the region. If Washington decided to make a bilateral deal with North Korea and promises not to invade the country in any case then it will leave S. Korea unprotected in case of North Korean attack. If Washington decides to press North Korea through China it will have to sacrifice Taiwan. In any of these cases sacrificing very loyal allies will mean to harm the U.S. prestige beyond the point of tolerance.

Instead of trying to solve the problem once and for all by military invasion or by sacrificing one of the regional allies, the U.S. may try to play the old game of economic carrots. There should be no real threat coming from North Korea as long as its population is more or less fed and the popularity of Kim Jong-il is perceived above the level considered as threatening his regime. Staying in power is a supreme task for every Third World leader no matter what is his personal ideology, the 63-year-old Kim Jong-il including. As in the good old Middle Ages he's already choosing among at least three closest male relatives to pass his leadership to, one of which is a son of his mistress and the other two are sons of his late wife. Considering that this power bequest will likely occur in 10-20 years it would be highly improbable for Kim Jong-il to go to war in the meantime unless he's cornered against the wall. Such cornering should be avoided at any cost.

Kim may think about his heirs but in fact his rule won't outlive by long the collapse of Communism in China, an event that we'll see perhaps in mid-term.