Archived Articles

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

Global Real Estate Project
News Index

Directories
  Int'l Realty
  US Realty

The result of the Ukrainian presidential election, the political interference of Russia, the united Western front against Russia from Washington to Brussels, all these events in the past few days gave impression of first salvos of new Cold War between Moscow and its former global enemies. Is it possible to see again some kind of arm's race, mass expulsions of diplomats-spies, military and political tension on the brink of total war of nuclear annihilation? Closer analysis shows that Russia has no ideological motivation and/or military and economic capabilities in long run to withstand such new global confrontation. On the other hand, it won't be able either to look passively at the slow but certain disintegration of its self-proclaimed sphere of influence within the CIS.

The results of the Ukrainian election, not the number of ballots counted but the public reaction on the frauds clearly showed that Moscow is no longer a master in the post-Soviet territories, at least not in all of them. What had become as a routinely political operation of choosing new puppet in Kiev behind the curtains turned into the major political debacle for the Kremlin since 1999* and arguably since 1989**. After years of all-quiet-on-the-western-front Moscow suddenly realized that the West's push on the East isn't over yet. Given the close ethnic links between Ukraine and Russia and the authoritarian trends in Moscow under Putin's presidency, one of the next stops of the people's revolution may inevitable be Russia.

It's then no surprise that Moscow reacted such vehemently on the possibility to lose complete control over Ukraine. Some control will be exercised anyway given the strong economic interests of major Russian companies in this country, the presence of 20-25% Russian minority, the Russian Black Sea fleet based in Crimea and many other less important factors. Ukraine won't become another Poland no matter what are the Western projects and no matter who will become the next president in Kiev. But it may become a model for Russian democratic and not so democratically oriented opposition. It may be just a prelude to similar events on the Red Square no matter how invulnerable and stable the current president Putin looks like.

To stop this process Moscow has threatened the West by using wording borrowed from the good old times of the Cold War. But is Russia able to follow this dangerous path? On first sight there is nothing that can prevent it from doing so. Russia is still military super power with thousands nuclear weapons. Its power is still no match for any of the other former Soviet republics outside the Western security arrangements (Baltic states). Its economic interests in CIS are dominant; its kin minorities can easily lead to break-ups of some republics if Moscow wishes so. Russia is right now economically and financially more independent from the West than ever before. What is very important also, the public opinion wants to take revenge after 15 years of international humiliations. Russia looks like Weimer Germany in the 1920-1930's with the exception that it's nuclear superpower with no economic dependence on imported raw materials. That makes the Cold War scenario possible if not very likely.

What are cons to these suggestions? Russia is right now financially independent but how long it could keep this position if the western countries stop investing in the oil fields of Siberia? No new investments means less exports in mid-term and less money to keep the military confrontation with the West. Moscow is still a nuclear super power but for how long it could keep this status without major injections into new military systems? The nuclear arsenals are gradually going out of service and the replacement isn't adequate especially in terms of quantity. 10-15 years from now Russia will have nuclear arsenals comparable to those of France and UK, not of the United States. New Cold War also implies ideological confrontation added to the geo-political one. Moscow is no more ideological center as used to be in the past. Soviet ideology isn't in fashion anymore; the traditional Orthodoxy although supported by the majority is far from becoming political force; the sense of Slavic brotherhood is irrelevant given the events in Ukraine and the fact that so many Slavic countries are already part of the West or are on the final stretch to become***. Finally, the Russian public opinion after so many decades of political and economic uncertainties wants to live peacefully, especially with its western neighbors. It's impossible to imagine anything short of direct military intervention by the West, which seems now completely out of touch with reality, that could mobilize the Russian public opinion around the idea of military confrontation.

Thus, no matter how sensitive and provocative may the events in Ukraine appear in Moscow, no matter how much the Russians feel hurt, it's very unlikely that the Kremlin will unleash new version of the Cold War with the West. They may try to use other means to reach their old strategic goals but won't do it by direct confrontation, a policy that is doomed in mid-term. But in any way they will have to do something if they don't want to see shortly a revolution under their own windows.

* - The unsuccessful attempt by Moscow to save its strategic Balkan ally Milosevic by airlifting troops from Russia to the Serbian province of Kosovo. The attempts failed after Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria rejected demands to give Russia military air corridors.

** - The unsuccessful attempt by Gorbachev in 1989 to replace some old guard communists in Eastern Europe by younger reformers without major political shake-ups. The operations went out of control and gradually Eastern Europe went out of the Soviet sphere of influence.

*** - Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Croatia.

--------------------

See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Europe.